📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: April 2026

🎯 Forecast: +0.6%
🕐 Previous: +0.9%

📋 Source: BLS
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
CPI MoM measures the monthly change in prices paid by consumers for a broad basket of goods and services. Because it includes volatile categories like food and energy, it is often the "Shock Factor" that drives the first 60 seconds of price action. It serves as the primary "early warning" for consumer cost-of-living increases.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD 🔺 | Yields 🔺 | Equities 🔻
🔴 Miss (Cool) 🧊: USD 🔻 | Yields 🔻 | Equities 🔺
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ➡️ | Yields ➡️ | Equities ↗️

Potential Fed Insight:
🔥 = Consumer Stress—Inflation is hitting "kitchen table" expenses.
🧊 = Commodity Relief—Lower energy/food costs are helping the average consumer.
➡️ = Stable—No major monthly price shocks.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: April 2026

🎯 Forecast: +0.4%
🕐 Previous: +0.2%

📋 Source: BLS
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
Core CPI MoM strips out volatile food and energy sectors to reveal the underlying, long-term inflation trend. This is considered the "Truth" by the Federal Reserve. Since the Fed cannot control global oil or crop prices with interest rates, they use "Core" data (housing, services, etc.) to determine if monetary policy needs to be tighter or looser.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD 🔺 | Yields 🔺 | Equities 🔻
🔴 Miss (Cool) 🧊: USD 🔻 | Yields 🔻 | Equities 🔺
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ➡️ | Yields ➡️ | Equities ↗️

Potential Fed Insight:
🔥 = Sticky Inflation—Fed stays "Higher for Longer"; no cuts likely.
🧊 = Disinflation—Structural inflation is cooling; Pivot narrative is active.
➡️ = Consistency—The current policy path is likely working.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: April 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: -0.6%

📋 Source: BLS
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
Real Earnings measures the change in wages after adjusting for inflation (CPI). It tells the Fed if the consumer's "Buying Power" is actually increasing or if inflation is eating their paycheck. If wages go up 4% but inflation is 5%, Real Earnings is -1%. This is the ultimate "Social Stability" metric—if this stays negative, the consumer eventually breaks, which increases recession risk.

🟢 Beat (Higher Buying Power) 🚀: USD 🔻 | Yields 🔻 | Equities 🔺
🔴 Miss (Lower Buying Power) 📉: USD 🔺 | Yields 🔺 | Equities 🔻
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ➡️ | Yields ➡️ | Equities ➡️

Potential Fed Insight:
🚀 = Positive Real Wages—Consumers can keep spending without taking on new debt.
📉 = Cost of Living Crisis—Consumers are falling behind; recession risk is rising.
➡️ = Stable—Wages and inflation are moving in lockstep.

COMEX METALS (SI) — ROLL DAY

Approximate volume crossover date. Front-month liquidity typically
declines ~10 business days before expiry. Most metals traders roll
2+ weeks before LTD to avoid delivery risk.

Key Dates:
Roll Day (Today) : Wednesday, May 13, 2026 To:
SI May 2026 Delivery (SIK26) -> July 2026 Delivery (SIN26)

Typical Roll Behavior:
~10 biz days out : crossover — back-month volume grows
Final week : liquidity in front month drops sharply

⚠ Physical delivery obligation for holders who do not roll.

VIX FUTURES (VX) — ROLL DAY
May 2026 (VXK26)

Approximate volume crossover date (~5 business days before LTD).
VX rolls are typically executed in the week leading up to expiry.

Key Dates:
Roll Day (Today) : Wednesday, May 13, 2026 <-- approx. crossover
Last Trading Day : Wednesday, May 20, 2026 (Wednesday)

Contract : VX — VIX Futures (CFE — CBOE Futures Exchange)

Rolling From : May 2026 (VXK26) (VXK26)
Rolling To : June 2026 (VXM26) (VXM26)

Settlement Note:
On LTD (Wednesday), final settlement is based on the SOQ of the
VIX index, calculated from the opening prices of SPX options.
Unlike equity index futures, VX settles on the same day as LTD.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: April 2026

🎯 Forecast: +0.4%
🕐 Previous: +0.5%

📋 Source: BLS
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
PPI MoM measures the change in selling prices for all goods and services, including food and energy. While it's the "early warning" for consumer prices, it is highly sensitive to swings in gas and oil prices, making it more volatile than the Core reading. It is a key indicator for corporate profit margins and commodity-driven inflation.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD 🔺 | Yields 🔺 | Equities 🔻
🔴 Miss (Cool) 🧊: USD 🔻 | Yields 🔻 | Equities 🔺
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ➡️ | Yields ➡️ | Equities ↗️

Potential Fed Insight:
🔥 = Commodity Pressure—Watch for energy costs trickling into the economy.
🧊 = Input Relief—Wholesale costs are easing; great for corporate margins.
➡️ = Stable—No major supply chain or energy shocks this month.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: April 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +0.2%

📋 Source: BLS
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
Core PPI MoM measures the monthly change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output, excluding the volatile food and energy sectors. It is distinct from "Headline" PPI because it filters out that "noise" to reveal underlying inflation trends, making it a critical tool for the Fed to gauge future consumer price pressures and for traders to speculate on upcoming interest rate shifts.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD 🔺 | Yields 🔺 | Equities 🔻
🔴 Miss (Cool) 🧊: USD 🔻 | Yields 🔻 | Equities 🔺
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ➡️ | Yields ➡️ | Equities ↗️

Potential Fed Insight:
🔥 = Too hot to handle—Fed stays hawkish.
🧊 = Inflation chill—Pivot is back on the menu.
➡️ = Nothing to see here—relief rally potential.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: April 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +1.7%

📋 Source: Census
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
Retail Sales measures the monthly change in the total value of sales at the retail level. It is the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for roughly 70% of the U.S. economy. This report includes everything from "Big Box" stores and online retailers to gas stations and restaurants. Because it is the first major look at consumer behavior for the month, it is a high-velocity market mover. A "Hot" print suggests the economy is over-performing, which can lead to higher inflation expectations and a hawkish Fed.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▼/▲
🔴 Miss (Cool) ❄️: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▲/▼
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
🔥 = Economic Overheating—Consumers are spending aggressively; suggests GDP will be revised higher, but also keeps the Fed's "higher for longer" narrative alive.
❄️ = Spending Freeze—A pullback in retail indicates that high interest rates are finally curbing consumer appetite; a classic "Cooling" signal.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: April 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +1.9%

📋 Source: Census
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
Core Retail Sales measures the monthly change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles. Because auto sales are large, expensive, and often skewed by financing incentives, removing them reveals the underlying strength of the "American Consumer." Since consumer spending accounts for ~70% of U.S. GDP, this is the highest-conviction report for gauging economic momentum. A strong core print suggests a "Hot" economy that may keep inflation sticky and the Fed hawkish.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▼/▲
🔴 Miss (Cool) ❄️: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▲/▼
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
🔥 = Consumer Resilience—The "Wealth Effect" is in full swing; households are spending despite high interest rates.
❄️ = Consumer Fatigue—High costs or debt levels are finally causing a pullback; a primary signal for an economic slowdown.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: April 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +0.6%

📋 Source: BLS
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
This measures the monthly change in prices for imported goods, excluding the volatile energy sector (petroleum and natural gas). Professional traders watch this to see if "structural" inflation is being imported from global factories. If this is rising, it puts upward pressure on the CPI and squeezes the profit margins of S&P 500 companies that rely on global supply chains.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD 🔺 | Yields 🔺 | Equities 🔻
🔴 Miss (Cool) 🧊: USD 🔻 | Yields 🔻 | Equities 🔺
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ➡️ | Yields ➡️ | Equities ➡️

Potential Fed Insight:
🔥 = Imported Inflation—Global prices are rising; the Fed may need to stay hawkish to keep the Dollar strong.
🧊 = Disinflationary Tailwinds—Global price pressures are easing, helping the Fed’s fight.
➡️ = Stable—Global supply chains are in a balanced price state.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: Week of May 9, 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +200K

📋 Source: DOL
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals filing for unemployment insurance for the first time. Released every Thursday, it is the most frequent "high-definition" look we get at the labor market's health. In the 2026 environment, where the NQ is hyper-sensitive to "Higher for Longer" interest rates, low claims are actually bearish for tech because they give the Fed more room to stay hawkish.

🟢 Beat (Hot/Low Claims) 📉: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▼
🔴 Miss (Cool/High Claims) 📈: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Labor Resilience—Fewer people are being laid off than expected; suggests a robust economy that can handle high rates, which delays Fed rate cuts.
📉 = Early Cracking—A jump in claims suggests that corporate layoffs are finally accelerating, potentially forcing the Fed to pivot sooner to avoid a recession.

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: March 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +0.4%

📋 Source: Census
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
Business Inventories measure the change in the dollar value of unsold goods held by manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers. Because this report represents the "total" stockpile of the U.S. economy, it is a primary component used to finalize GDP calculations. In a healthy economy, rising inventories suggest businesses are preparing for higher sales. However, if inventories rise while sales are flat, it signals a "glut" that could lead to future production cuts and a slowing economy.

🔴 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▼
🟢 Miss (Cool) ❄️: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
🔥 = Stockpile Accumulation—Provides a mathematical boost to current GDP but risks a "Bullwhip Effect" where future orders are cancelled due to oversupply.
❄️ = Inventory Drawdown—Suggests strong underlying demand is clearing out shelves; acts as a short-term drag on GDP but a long-term signal for a new production cycle.

📅 Release: 7:00 PM ET
📅 Period: Speaks on Balance Sheet

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: TBD

📋 Source: FED
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
Michael Barr — Federal Reserve Governor.
Tier 3 speaker. Market impact: Low.

🔴 Hawkish signals: Restrictive, Upside risks, Entrenched, Premature, Further action, Rule-based
🟢 Dovish signals: Neutral, Symmetry, Disinflation, Soft landing, Cooling, Patience
⚖️ Neutral: Wait and see, Lagged effects, Nimble, Data dependent

MONTHLY OPTIONS EXPIRATION (OPEX) — May 2026

Standard monthly options expiration for equity and index options.
No equity index futures expire this month (non-witching cycle).

What Expires Today:
1. Individual Stock Options — standard monthly (PM-settled, 4:00 PM ET)
2. Index Options (AM-settled) — SPX, NDX, RUT standard monthly
These stop trading Thursday 4:15 PM ET and settle Friday at the SOQ.
Note: Equity index futures (ES/NQ/YM/RTY) do NOT expire this month.

Settlement Timing:
9:30 AM ET : SOQ for AM-settled index options (SPX/NDX/RUT standard monthly)
4:00 PM ET : PM-settled equity options and SPX weekly options expire

Key Dates:
VIX Options Exp (SOQ) : Wednesday, May 20, 2026 (Wednesday)
OPEX (Today) : Friday, May 15, 2026

Typical Market Behavior:
Thursday close : AM-settled index options stop trading
Friday open : SOQ for AM-settled options — often a volatile instant
Friday intraday: pin risk — stocks may gravitate toward high-OI strikes
Friday close : dealer gamma exposure resets as equity options expire

AM-Settled Index Options (stop trading Thursday 4:15 PM ET):
SPX standard monthly, NDX standard monthly, RUT standard monthly
These settle at the Friday SOQ — you CANNOT trade out at the open.

PM-Settled Options (trade until Friday 4:00 PM ET):
All individual equity options, SPX weekly options (SPXW)

VIX OPTIONS EXPIRATION — May 2026

VIX options and VX futures share the same final settlement date:
the Wednesday 30 days before the 3rd Friday of the following month.

Settlement:
Settlement Day : Wednesday, May 20, 2026 (today)
Method : Special Opening Quotation (SOQ) of the VIX index,
calculated from the opening prices of SPX options
on the morning of expiration.
Note : VIX options are European-style (cash-settled, no early exercise).

What Settles Today:
VIX Options — CBOE VIX options, standard monthly contract
VX Futures — CBOE Futures Exchange (CFE) VIX futures

Key Dates:
VIX / VX Expiration (Today) : Wednesday, May 20, 2026
Next OPEX Friday : Friday, May 15, 2026

Typical Behavior:
The VIX SOQ can differ significantly from the prior day's VIX close
because it is calculated from the actual opening prices of SPX options,
not from the VIX index itself. Positions cannot be closed at expiry;
traders must roll or close before the Wednesday open.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: Week of May 16, 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +200K

📋 Source: DOL
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals filing for unemployment insurance for the first time. Released every Thursday, it is the most frequent "high-definition" look we get at the labor market's health. In the 2026 environment, where the NQ is hyper-sensitive to "Higher for Longer" interest rates, low claims are actually bearish for tech because they give the Fed more room to stay hawkish.

🟢 Beat (Hot/Low Claims) 📉: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▼
🔴 Miss (Cool/High Claims) 📈: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Labor Resilience—Fewer people are being laid off than expected; suggests a robust economy that can handle high rates, which delays Fed rate cuts.
📉 = Early Cracking—A jump in claims suggests that corporate layoffs are finally accelerating, potentially forcing the Fed to pivot sooner to avoid a recession.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: April 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +1502K

📋 Source: Census
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
Housing Starts measures the number of new residential construction projects that began during the month. Released by the Census Bureau, this is a "coincident" indicator of economic strength. It tracks the actual deployment of capital and labor into the housing sector. Housing Starts are notoriously volatile because they are highly sensitive to weather conditions (e.g., a cold winter in Texas can cause a "Miss" regardless of demand). Despite the volatility, it is a key component of GDP and a major driver for the "Real Economy," affecting demand for everything from lumber to heavy machinery.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 📈: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▲/▼
🔴 Miss (Cool) 📉: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▼/▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Active Expansion—Builders are actively breaking ground; signals high confidence and a "tight" housing market that needs supply.
📉 = Construction Stall—High input costs or poor weather are halting projects; can lead to future supply shortages and higher home prices.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: April 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +1372K

📋 Source: Census
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
Building Permits measures the number of new residential building permits issued by the government. It is one of the most important leading indicators for the housing market because it signals future construction activity and, by extension, future demand for labor, raw materials (lumber, copper), and consumer durables. Because it is less affected by weather than "Housing Starts," it is often considered a more reliable gauge of the underlying trend in the housing sector.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 📈: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▲/▼
🔴 Miss (Cool) 📉: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▼/▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Growth Pipeline—A surge in permits suggests builders are confident in future demand; bullish for the economy but can be hawkish for rates.
📉 = Pipeline Freeze—A drop in permits suggests builders are pulling back due to high costs or low buyer traffic; a classic early-warning sign of a slowdown.

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: April 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: 3.98M

📋 Source: NAR
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
Existing Home Sales measures the annualized rate of previously owned homes sold in the US, reported as a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) in millions of units. Released monthly by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), typically the 3rd week of the following month at 10:00 AM ET. Existing sales represent ~90% of total home sales, making this the primary gauge of housing demand. The Fed monitors this closely as a rate-sensitive sector — mortgage rates above 7% have significantly suppressed sales since 2022.

Memorial Day

Equities: Closed
(No regular 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET session)

CME Globex Equity Index Futures (ES, NQ, RTY):
Closed for the holiday.
Prior session settles at 5:00 PM ET.
Reopens 6:00 PM ET on the holiday.

US Federal Holiday

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: May 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: TBD

📋 Source: Conf Board
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index measures U.S. household sentiment on current and expected economic conditions, indexed to 1985=100. Released on the last Tuesday of each month. It tracks consumers' assessments of current business conditions, the labor market, and their six-month outlook. As one of the most widely-followed leading indicators of consumer spending, a beat signals household resilience and supports risk assets; a miss raises fears of demand contraction ahead.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: April 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +0.7%

📋 Source: BEA
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index measures the change in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers. Unlike the "Core" version, this "Headline" figure includes food and energy costs. While the Fed focuses on Core for long-term policy, Headline PCE is what consumers actually feel at the pump and grocery store, making it a key driver of inflation expectations and "real" consumer spending power.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▼
🔴 Miss (Cool) ❄️: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
🔥 = Broad-Based Inflation—Rising energy/food costs are keeping headline inflation high; reduces discretionary spending.
❄️ = Cost Relief—Declining commodity prices are providing relief to households; supports a "soft landing" narrative.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: April 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +0.3%

📋 Source: BEA
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) measures the change in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding volatile food and energy categories. As the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, it provides a more stable view of long-term price trends than CPI. A higher-than-expected reading indicates persistent inflationary pressure, typically leading to hawkish Fed expectations, while a lower reading supports a cooling narrative.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▼
🔴 Miss (Cool) ❄️: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Fed Insight:
🔥 = Inflation Persistence—Core prices remain elevated; supports a restrictive policy stance.
❄️ = Disinflation Progress—Prices are cooling toward the 2% target; supports a pivot or easing.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: First Quarter 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +0.5%

📋 Source: BEA
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
The Second Estimate of GDP is the second of three reports released by the BEA for a given quarter. While the "Advance" estimate (released 30 days prior) creates the largest initial shock, the Second Estimate is critical because it incorporates more complete source data, such as revised inventories and trade balances. Traders watch this release specifically for revisions; a significant change from the Advance print can force a major repricing of the "growth vs. inflation" narrative.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 📈: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▲/▼
🔴 Miss (Cool) 📉: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▼/▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Upward Momentum—Suggests the economy was stronger than the initial estimate; hawkish if it fuels inflation fears.
📉 = Downward Revision—Indicates the Advance report was overly optimistic; can be a "relief" sign for lower yields.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: Week of May 23, 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +200K

📋 Source: DOL
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals filing for unemployment insurance for the first time. Released every Thursday, it is the most frequent "high-definition" look we get at the labor market's health. In the 2026 environment, where the NQ is hyper-sensitive to "Higher for Longer" interest rates, low claims are actually bearish for tech because they give the Fed more room to stay hawkish.

🟢 Beat (Hot/Low Claims) 📉: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▼
🔴 Miss (Cool/High Claims) 📈: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Labor Resilience—Fewer people are being laid off than expected; suggests a robust economy that can handle high rates, which delays Fed rate cuts.
📉 = Early Cracking—A jump in claims suggests that corporate layoffs are finally accelerating, potentially forcing the Fed to pivot sooner to avoid a recession.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: April 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +0.6%

📋 Source: BEA
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received by consumers from all sources, including wages, investment income, and government transfers. Released by the BEA, this is a critical leading indicator for consumer spending, which accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. GDP. High income growth suggests a strong labor market and future spending potential, though excessive growth can stoke inflation fears through increased demand.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 📈: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▲/▼
🔴 Miss (Cool) 📉: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▼/▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Purchasing Power—Consumers have more capital to drive economic growth; hawkish if it implies a tight labor market leading to wage inflation.
📉 = Consumer Fatigue—Stagnant or falling income suggests a cooling labor market and future weakness in retail sales.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: April 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +0.8%

📋 Source: Census
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
Durable Goods Orders measures the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with domestic manufacturers for "hard goods"—items with a life expectancy of at least three years. This includes everything from computers and industrial machinery to civilian aircraft and defense equipment. Because these items represent a significant capital investment, this report is a major indicator of future industrial production and business confidence. The Headline number is notoriously volatile due to large "lumpy" orders for commercial aircraft (Boeing) and defense contracts.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▲/▼
🔴 Miss (Cool) ❄️: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▼/▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
🔥 = Industrial Surge—Massive new orders suggest manufacturers will be ramping up production and hiring in the coming months.
❄️ = Manufacturing Slump—A sharp drop in orders indicates businesses and consumers are delaying major capital expenditures.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: April 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +0.9%

📋 Source: Census
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
Core Durable Goods Orders measure the monthly change in new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for "hard goods"—items intended to last at least three years (machinery, computers, appliances)—specifically excluding transportation equipment. This removal of the volatile aircraft and auto sectors provides a cleaner signal of business investment and consumer demand. It is a vital leading indicator: rising orders today mean increased factory production and hiring tomorrow.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▲/▼
🔴 Miss (Cool) ❄️: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▼/▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
🔥 = Industrial Expansion—Businesses are investing in equipment; suggests strong corporate confidence and future productivity gains.
❄️ = Capex Slowdown—Companies are pausing big-ticket purchases; a primary signal that the economy is cooling or bracing for a downturn.

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: April 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +7K

📋 Source: Census
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
New Home Sales measures the number of newly constructed single-family homes sold during the month. Because a new home purchase often triggers a "chain reaction" of secondary spending—including appliances, furniture, landscaping, and electronics—this report is a high-quality gauge of future consumer discretionary spending. Since the data is recorded when the contract is signed, it is much more sensitive to current Mortgage Rates and buyer sentiment than the lagging "Existing Home Sales" report.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 📈: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▲/▼
🔴 Miss (Cool) 📉: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▼/▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Buyer Resilience—Consumers are willing to lock in at current rates; suggests a strong "Wealth Effect" and confidence in job security.
📉 = Affordability Crisis—High prices or rates are locking buyers out of the market; a signal of a cooling "Real Economy."

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: April 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +1.4%

📋 Source: Census
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
Advance Wholesale Inventories measures the monthly change in the value of goods held in stock by wholesalers (the "middlemen"). Released by the Census Bureau, this data is a direct input for GDP calculations. Because wholesalers sit between production and consumption, this report is an excellent indicator of the "supply chain health." Rising inventories can mean wholesalers are preparing for a spike in retail orders, or that the pipeline is backing up because consumers have stopped buying.

🟢 Beat (Higher) 📈: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ↔️/▼
🔴 Miss (Lower) 📉: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ↔️/▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Pipeline Expansion—Wholesalers are building stock; mathematically positive for GDP but potentially bearish if it indicates a lack of retail demand.
📉 = Pipeline Lean—Wholesalers are moving goods quickly to retailers; suggests strong end-user demand but acts as a short-term drag on GDP.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: April 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: -87.9B

📋 Source: Census
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
The Advance U.S. International Trade in Goods report provides the earliest look at the U.S. trade deficit for physical merchandise. It excludes services (like tourism or finance) but covers nearly 75% of total trade value. It is released alongside Advance Wholesale and Retail Inventories. Because it is a direct input for the first "Advance" GDP calculation, a surprise narrowing or widening of this balance often triggers an immediate revision in GDP models, moving the needle for the USD and Treasuries.

🟢 Beat (Narrowing Deficit) 📈: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▲
🔴 Miss (Widening Deficit) 📉: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▼
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Export Dominance—U.S. goods are in high demand or domestic demand for imports is cooling; a positive contributor to GDP.
📉 = Import Surge—Domestic consumption is outpacing production; acts as a "drag" on the upcoming GDP print.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: April 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +0.7%

📋 Source: Census
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
Advance Retail Inventories measures the monthly change in the value of inventory held by the retail sector. Released by the Census Bureau, this is a "double-edged sword" indicator. While increasing inventories contribute positively to GDPin the short term (it counts as production), "bloated" inventories can signal that consumer demand is slowing and retailers may soon be forced to slash prices (deflationary). Conversely, low inventories can signal strong sales but may also indicate supply chain bottlenecks.

🟢 Beat (Higher) 📈: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ↔️/▼
🔴 Miss (Lower) 📉: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ↔️/▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Inventory Building—Retailers are stocking up for expected demand (Bullish) OR goods are sitting on shelves because sales are slow (Bearish).
📉 = Inventory Depletion—Stronger-than-expected sales are clearing shelves (Bullish) OR retailers are pessimistic about future demand and aren't restocking (Bearish).

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: May 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +53.3

📋 Source: UoM
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index measures U.S. consumer confidence in economic conditions, indexed to 1966=100. Released as a preliminary reading (second Friday of the month) and a final reading (last Friday of the month). Widely tracked as a leading indicator of consumer spending and economic momentum. A beat signals household resilience and may support risk-on moves; a miss raises concerns about demand softening ahead.

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: May 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +3.8%

📋 Source: UoM
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
The University of Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Median Expected Price Change) surveys consumers on how much they expect prices to change over the next 12 months. Released with the Final UoM Consumer Sentiment report at 10:00 AM ET, typically the last Friday of the month. The Fed watches this closely as a proxy for inflation expectations becoming "unanchored" — a sustained rise above 4-5% would pressure the Fed to act more hawkishly. The 5-year expectation (long-run) is monitored even more closely.