📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: August 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +90.8

📋 Source: Conf Board
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index measures U.S. household sentiment on current and expected economic conditions, indexed to 1985=100. Released on the last Tuesday of each month. It tracks consumers' assessments of current business conditions, the labor market, and their six-month outlook. As one of the most widely-followed leading indicators of consumer spending, a beat signals household resilience and supports risk assets; a miss raises fears of demand contraction ahead.

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: July 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +628K

📋 Source: Census
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
New Home Sales measures the number of newly constructed single-family homes sold during the month. Because a new home purchase often triggers a "chain reaction" of secondary spending—including appliances, furniture, landscaping, and electronics—this report is a high-quality gauge of future consumer discretionary spending. Since the data is recorded when the contract is signed, it is much more sensitive to current Mortgage Rates and buyer sentiment than the lagging "Existing Home Sales" report.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 📈: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▲/▼
🔴 Miss (Cool) 📉: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▼/▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Buyer Resilience—Consumers are willing to lock in at current rates; suggests a strong "Wealth Effect" and confidence in job security.
📉 = Affordability Crisis—High prices or rates are locking buyers out of the market; a signal of a cooling "Real Economy."

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: August 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: TBD

📋 Source: Richmond Fed
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Activity Index. Last Tuesday of month at 10:00 AM ET. Free from richmondfed.org.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: July 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +0.1%

📋 Source: BEA
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) measures the change in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding volatile food and energy categories. As the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, it provides a more stable view of long-term price trends than CPI. A higher-than-expected reading indicates persistent inflationary pressure, typically leading to hawkish Fed expectations, while a lower reading supports a cooling narrative.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▼
🔴 Miss (Cool) ❄️: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Fed Insight:
🔥 = Inflation Persistence—Core prices remain elevated; supports a restrictive policy stance.
❄️ = Disinflation Progress—Prices are cooling toward the 2% target; supports a pivot or easing.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: July 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +0.0%

📋 Source: BEA
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received by consumers from all sources, including wages, investment income, and government transfers. Released by the BEA, this is a critical leading indicator for consumer spending, which accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. GDP. High income growth suggests a strong labor market and future spending potential, though excessive growth can stoke inflation fears through increased demand.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 📈: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▲/▼
🔴 Miss (Cool) 📉: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▼/▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Purchasing Power—Consumers have more capital to drive economic growth; hawkish if it implies a tight labor market leading to wage inflation.
📉 = Consumer Fatigue—Stagnant or falling income suggests a cooling labor market and future weakness in retail sales.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: Second Quarter 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +2.1%

📋 Source: BEA
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
The Second Estimate of GDP is the second of three reports released by the BEA for a given quarter. While the "Advance" estimate (released 30 days prior) creates the largest initial shock, the Second Estimate is critical because it incorporates more complete source data, such as revised inventories and trade balances. Traders watch this release specifically for revisions; a significant change from the Advance print can force a major repricing of the "growth vs. inflation" narrative.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 📈: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▲/▼
🔴 Miss (Cool) 📉: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▼/▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Upward Momentum—Suggests the economy was stronger than the initial estimate; hawkish if it fuels inflation fears.
📉 = Downward Revision—Indicates the Advance report was overly optimistic; can be a "relief" sign for lower yields.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: July 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +0.2%

📋 Source: BEA
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received by consumers from all sources, including wages, investment income, and government transfers. Released by the BEA, this is a critical leading indicator for consumer spending, which accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. GDP. High income growth suggests a strong labor market and future spending potential, though excessive growth can stoke inflation fears through increased demand.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 📈: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▲/▼
🔴 Miss (Cool) 📉: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▼/▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Purchasing Power—Consumers have more capital to drive economic growth; hawkish if it implies a tight labor market leading to wage inflation.
📉 = Consumer Fatigue—Stagnant or falling income suggests a cooling labor market and future weakness in retail sales.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: July 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +0.5%

📋 Source: BEA
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received by consumers from all sources, including wages, investment income, and government transfers. Released by the BEA, this is a critical leading indicator for consumer spending, which accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. GDP. High income growth suggests a strong labor market and future spending potential, though excessive growth can stoke inflation fears through increased demand.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 📈: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▲/▼
🔴 Miss (Cool) 📉: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▼/▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Purchasing Power—Consumers have more capital to drive economic growth; hawkish if it implies a tight labor market leading to wage inflation.
📉 = Consumer Fatigue—Stagnant or falling income suggests a cooling labor market and future weakness in retail sales.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: July 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: TBD

📋 Source: BEA
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
Monthly change in personal consumption expenditures. Released with Personal Income MoM and PCE data (BEA, last week of month, 8:30 AM ET). Key driver of GDP.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: July 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +0.3%

📋 Source: Census
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
Durable Goods Orders measures the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with domestic manufacturers for "hard goods"—items with a life expectancy of at least three years. This includes everything from computers and industrial machinery to civilian aircraft and defense equipment. Because these items represent a significant capital investment, this report is a major indicator of future industrial production and business confidence. The Headline number is notoriously volatile due to large "lumpy" orders for commercial aircraft (Boeing) and defense contracts.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▲/▼
🔴 Miss (Cool) ❄️: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▼/▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
🔥 = Industrial Surge—Massive new orders suggest manufacturers will be ramping up production and hiring in the coming months.
❄️ = Manufacturing Slump—A sharp drop in orders indicates businesses and consumers are delaying major capital expenditures.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: July 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +0.6%

📋 Source: Census
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
Core Durable Goods Orders measure the monthly change in new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for "hard goods"—items intended to last at least three years (machinery, computers, appliances)—specifically excluding transportation equipment. This removal of the volatile aircraft and auto sectors provides a cleaner signal of business investment and consumer demand. It is a vital leading indicator: rising orders today mean increased factory production and hiring tomorrow.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▲/▼
🔴 Miss (Cool) ❄️: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▼/▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
🔥 = Industrial Expansion—Businesses are investing in equipment; suggests strong corporate confidence and future productivity gains.
❄️ = Capex Slowdown—Companies are pausing big-ticket purchases; a primary signal that the economy is cooling or bracing for a downturn.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: July 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: -0.1%

📋 Source: BEA
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index measures the change in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers. Unlike the "Core" version, this "Headline" figure includes food and energy costs. While the Fed focuses on Core for long-term policy, Headline PCE is what consumers actually feel at the pump and grocery store, making it a key driver of inflation expectations and "real" consumer spending power.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▼
🔴 Miss (Cool) ❄️: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
🔥 = Broad-Based Inflation—Rising energy/food costs are keeping headline inflation high; reduces discretionary spending.
❄️ = Cost Relief—Declining commodity prices are providing relief to households; supports a "soft landing" narrative.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: July 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +0.2%

📋 Source: BEA
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) measures the change in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding volatile food and energy categories. As the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, it provides a more stable view of long-term price trends than CPI. A higher-than-expected reading indicates persistent inflationary pressure, typically leading to hawkish Fed expectations, while a lower reading supports a cooling narrative.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▼
🔴 Miss (Cool) ❄️: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Fed Insight:
🔥 = Inflation Persistence—Core prices remain elevated; supports a restrictive policy stance.
❄️ = Disinflation Progress—Prices are cooling toward the 2% target; supports a pivot or easing.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: July 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +0.7%

📋 Source: BEA
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index measures the change in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers. Unlike the "Core" version, this "Headline" figure includes food and energy costs. While the Fed focuses on Core for long-term policy, Headline PCE is what consumers actually feel at the pump and grocery store, making it a key driver of inflation expectations and "real" consumer spending power.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▼
🔴 Miss (Cool) ❄️: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
🔥 = Broad-Based Inflation—Rising energy/food costs are keeping headline inflation high; reduces discretionary spending.
❄️ = Cost Relief—Declining commodity prices are providing relief to households; supports a "soft landing" narrative.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: July 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +0.2%

📋 Source: BEA
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) measures the change in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding volatile food and energy categories. As the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, it provides a more stable view of long-term price trends than CPI. A higher-than-expected reading indicates persistent inflationary pressure, typically leading to hawkish Fed expectations, while a lower reading supports a cooling narrative.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▼
🔴 Miss (Cool) ❄️: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Fed Insight:
🔥 = Inflation Persistence—Core prices remain elevated; supports a restrictive policy stance.
❄️ = Disinflation Progress—Prices are cooling toward the 2% target; supports a pivot or easing.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: Week of August 22, 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +4K

📋 Source: DOL
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals filing for unemployment insurance for the first time. Released every Thursday, it is the most frequent "high-definition" look we get at the labor market's health. In the 2026 environment, where the NQ is hyper-sensitive to "Higher for Longer" interest rates, low claims are actually bearish for tech because they give the Fed more room to stay hawkish.

🟢 Beat (Hot/Low Claims) 📉: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▼
🔴 Miss (Cool/High Claims) 📈: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Labor Resilience—Fewer people are being laid off than expected; suggests a robust economy that can handle high rates, which delays Fed rate cuts.
📉 = Early Cracking—A jump in claims suggests that corporate layoffs are finally accelerating, potentially forcing the Fed to pivot sooner to avoid a recession.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: July 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +9.5%

📋 Source: Census
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
Advance Wholesale Inventories measures the monthly change in the value of goods held in stock by wholesalers (the "middlemen"). Released by the Census Bureau, this data is a direct input for GDP calculations. Because wholesalers sit between production and consumption, this report is an excellent indicator of the "supply chain health." Rising inventories can mean wholesalers are preparing for a spike in retail orders, or that the pipeline is backing up because consumers have stopped buying.

🟢 Beat (Higher) 📈: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ↔️/▼
🔴 Miss (Lower) 📉: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ↔️/▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Pipeline Expansion—Wholesalers are building stock; mathematically positive for GDP but potentially bearish if it indicates a lack of retail demand.
📉 = Pipeline Lean—Wholesalers are moving goods quickly to retailers; suggests strong end-user demand but acts as a short-term drag on GDP.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: July 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +0.6%

📋 Source: Census
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
Advance Retail Inventories measures the monthly change in the value of inventory held by the retail sector. Released by the Census Bureau, this is a "double-edged sword" indicator. While increasing inventories contribute positively to GDPin the short term (it counts as production), "bloated" inventories can signal that consumer demand is slowing and retailers may soon be forced to slash prices (deflationary). Conversely, low inventories can signal strong sales but may also indicate supply chain bottlenecks.

🟢 Beat (Higher) 📈: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ↔️/▼
🔴 Miss (Lower) 📉: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ↔️/▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Inventory Building—Retailers are stocking up for expected demand (Bullish) OR goods are sitting on shelves because sales are slow (Bearish).
📉 = Inventory Depletion—Stronger-than-expected sales are clearing shelves (Bullish) OR retailers are pessimistic about future demand and aren't restocking (Bearish).

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: July 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +0.4%

📋 Source: BEA
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index measures the change in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers. Unlike the "Core" version, this "Headline" figure includes food and energy costs. While the Fed focuses on Core for long-term policy, Headline PCE is what consumers actually feel at the pump and grocery store, making it a key driver of inflation expectations and "real" consumer spending power.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▼
🔴 Miss (Cool) ❄️: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
🔥 = Broad-Based Inflation—Rising energy/food costs are keeping headline inflation high; reduces discretionary spending.
❄️ = Cost Relief—Declining commodity prices are providing relief to households; supports a "soft landing" narrative.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: July 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: -105.8B

📋 Source: Census
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
The Advance U.S. International Trade in Goods report provides the earliest look at the U.S. trade deficit for physical merchandise. It excludes services (like tourism or finance) but covers nearly 75% of total trade value. It is released alongside Advance Wholesale and Retail Inventories. Because it is a direct input for the first "Advance" GDP calculation, a surprise narrowing or widening of this balance often triggers an immediate revision in GDP models, moving the needle for the USD and Treasuries.

🟢 Beat (Narrowing Deficit) 📈: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▲
🔴 Miss (Widening Deficit) 📉: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▼
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Export Dominance—U.S. goods are in high demand or domestic demand for imports is cooling; a positive contributor to GDP.
📉 = Import Surge—Domestic consumption is outpacing production; acts as a "drag" on the upcoming GDP print.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: Week of August 22, 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +1799K

📋 Source: DOL
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
Number of people currently receiving unemployment benefits (1-week lagged from Initial Claims). Released every Thursday 8:30 AM ET with Initial Claims.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: July 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +0.4%

📋 Source: BEA
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index measures the change in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers. Unlike the "Core" version, this "Headline" figure includes food and energy costs. While the Fed focuses on Core for long-term policy, Headline PCE is what consumers actually feel at the pump and grocery store, making it a key driver of inflation expectations and "real" consumer spending power.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▼
🔴 Miss (Cool) ❄️: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
🔥 = Broad-Based Inflation—Rising energy/food costs are keeping headline inflation high; reduces discretionary spending.
❄️ = Cost Relief—Declining commodity prices are providing relief to households; supports a "soft landing" narrative.

📅 Release: 11:00 AM ET
📅 Period: August 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: TBD

📋 Source: KC Fed
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey. Last Thursday of month at 11:00 AM ET. Free from kansascityfed.org.

📅 Release: 9:45 AM ET
📅 Period: August 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +57.6%

📋 Source: MNI
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
Chicago Business Barometer (PMI). Last business day of month at 9:45 AM ET by MNI. ISM preview indicator. Subscription data.

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: Speaks on Keynote Remarks

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: TBD

📋 Source: FED
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
Kevin Warsh — Federal Reserve Chair-Elect.
Tier 1 speaker. Market impact: High.

🔴 Hawkish signals: Restrictive, Upside risks, Entrenched, Premature, Further action, Rule-based
🟢 Dovish signals: Neutral, Symmetry, Disinflation, Soft landing, Cooling, Patience
⚖️ Neutral: Wait and see, Lagged effects, Nimble, Data dependent

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: August 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +3.3%

📋 Source: UoM
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
University of Michigan long-run (5-year) inflation expectations. Fed watches this closely for anchoring. Released with Final UoM Sentiment.

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: August 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +49.5

📋 Source: UoM
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index measures U.S. consumer confidence in economic conditions, indexed to 1966=100. Released as a preliminary reading (second Friday of the month) and a final reading (last Friday of the month). Widely tracked as a leading indicator of consumer spending and economic momentum. A beat signals household resilience and may support risk-on moves; a miss raises concerns about demand softening ahead.

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: August 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +4.2%

📋 Source: UoM
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
The University of Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Median Expected Price Change) surveys consumers on how much they expect prices to change over the next 12 months. Released with the Final UoM Consumer Sentiment report at 10:00 AM ET, typically the last Friday of the month. The Fed watches this closely as a proxy for inflation expectations becoming "unanchored" — a sustained rise above 4-5% would pressure the Fed to act more hawkishly. The 5-year expectation (long-run) is monitored even more closely.

📅 Release: 10:30 AM ET
📅 Period: August 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: TBD

📋 Source: Dallas Fed
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
Dallas Fed Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. Last Monday of month at 10:30 AM ET. Free from dallasfed.org.

📅 Release: 9:45 AM ET
📅 Period: August 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +53.8%

📋 Source: S&P Global
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ (Final) surveys ~800 purchasing managers across manufacturing. Released at 9:45 AM ET on the first business day of the month — 15 minutes before ISM. Uses a different methodology and sample from ISM; treated as a secondary confirmation but still market-moving at release.

The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI tracks sentiment in the US factory sector. Since this is the Final print, the market has already reacted to the Flash estimate released last week. We are looking for revisions—any deviation from the Flash will cause a "Revision Volatility" event.

What to Watch For:
🟢 BEAT: (Revision Up) — USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▼. Suggests a resilient "demand engine." Watch for the NQ to fade as "Higher for Longer" fears re-emerge.
🔴 MISS: (Revision Down) — USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▲/▼. Suggests a cooling sector. Initially bullish for equities ("Bad News is Good News"), but if the miss is deep (below 48.0), watch for "Hard Landing" fears to trigger a sell-off.
➡️ INLINE: (No Revision) — Neutral. Usually a "pop and drop" followed by a return to the previous trend. Non-event for NQ/ES.
⚠️ THE FLIP: Keep a close eye on the 50.0 level. If the Flash was 50.2 and the Final is 49.8, that "Expansion to Contraction" flip carries more psychological weight than the number itself.

📅 Release: 9:45 AM ET
📅 Period: August 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: TBD

📋 Source: S&P Global
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ (Final) surveys ~800 purchasing managers across manufacturing. Released at 9:45 AM ET on the first business day of the month — 15 minutes before ISM. Uses a different methodology and sample from ISM; treated as a secondary confirmation but still market-moving at release.

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: August 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +52.7%

📋 Source: ISM
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
The ISM Manufacturing PMI® is a composite index of five sub-indexes: New Orders (30%), Output (25%), Employment (20%), Supplier Deliveries (15%), and Inventories (10%). Above 50 = expansion; below 50 = contraction. Released at 10:00 AM ET on the first business day of each month. One of the most closely watched macro indicators — often moves equities, rates, and USD within seconds of release.

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: August 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +52.7%

📋 Source: ISM
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
The ISM Manufacturing PMI® is a composite index of five sub-indexes: New Orders (30%), Output (25%), Employment (20%), Supplier Deliveries (15%), and Inventories (10%). Above 50 = expansion; below 50 = contraction. Released at 10:00 AM ET on the first business day of each month. One of the most closely watched macro indicators — often moves equities, rates, and USD within seconds of release.

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: August 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +52.7%

📋 Source: ISM
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
The ISM Manufacturing PMI® is a composite index of five sub-indexes: New Orders (30%), Output (25%), Employment (20%), Supplier Deliveries (15%), and Inventories (10%). Above 50 = expansion; below 50 = contraction. Released at 10:00 AM ET on the first business day of each month. One of the most closely watched macro indicators — often moves equities, rates, and USD within seconds of release.

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: July 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +7594K

📋 Source: BLS
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
JOLTS measures labor demand by counting the number of unfilled job openings on the last business day of the month. The Fed watches this closely to see the ratio of job openings to unemployed persons. Nuance: While the "Job Openings" number gets the headline, professional traders watch the "Quits Rate." High quits mean workers are confident they can find better-paying jobs, which drives "sticky" wage inflation. Low quits mean workers are "staying put," which signals a cooling economy.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD 🔺 | Yields 🔺 | Equities 🔻
🔴 Miss (Cool) 🧊: USD 🔻 | Yields 🔻 | Equities 🔺
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ➡️ | Yields ➡️ | Equities ➡️

Potential Fed Insight:
🔥 = Labor market is too tight—Excess demand for workers keeps the Fed hawkish.
🧊 = Labor demand is easing—Fewer openings mean the economy is cooling as intended.
➡️ = Balanced—Labor demand is stable; no immediate change to the Fed’s path.

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: July 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: -0.3%

📋 Source: Census
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
Construction Spending measures the monthly change in the total value of construction work performed. It is split into Private (Residential and Nonresidential) and Public (State, Local, and Federal) sectors. Because it tracks actual "work done" rather than just contracts signed, it is a direct input for GDP. It serves as a vital indicator for the demand of raw materials (steel, cement) and labor. In the current 2026 environment, traders watch the "Manufacturing" and "Highway" segments closely to gauge the impact of long-term infrastructure and industrial investment.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 📈: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▲/▼
🔴 Miss (Cool) 📉: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▼/▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Capital Expansion—Strong investment in physical assets; positive for long-term productivity and growth.
📉 = Fixed Investment Slowdown—High borrowing costs or economic uncertainty are causing developers to pause projects; a signal of cooling macro momentum.

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: August 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +71.1%

📋 Source: ISM
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
The ISM Manufacturing Prices Index (Prices Paid) measures the change in costs for raw materials and services used in production. As a leading indicator for the CPI, it is the market's first look at whether inflation is cooling or reigniting. In the current 2026 climate—defined by Middle East supply shocks and new trade tariffs—this sub-index often dictates the NQ’s reaction more than the headline growth number.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 📈: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▼
🔴 Miss (Cool) 📉: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Reigniting Inflation—Rising energy and logistical costs (Mideast war impact) are hitting manufacturers; forces the Fed to remain hawkish and delays any "Soft Landing" rate cuts.
📉 = Input Relief—Disinflation is taking hold despite geopolitical noise; suggests a "Goldilocks" environment where companies can maintain margins without raising prices on consumers.

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: August 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +55.6%

📋 Source: ISM
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
The ISM Manufacturing PMI® is a composite index of five sub-indexes: New Orders (30%), Output (25%), Employment (20%), Supplier Deliveries (15%), and Inventories (10%). Above 50 = expansion; below 50 = contraction. Released at 10:00 AM ET on the first business day of each month. One of the most closely watched macro indicators — often moves equities, rates, and USD within seconds of release.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a "First-Tier" economic indicator that serves as the definitive health check for the US industrial sector. Compiled from a survey of over 400 purchasing managers, it is one of the most reliable leading indicators for GDP growth. Because this data is released on the first business day of the month and is never revised, it carries massive weight for institutional positioning in the NQ and ES.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 📈: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▲/▼
🔴 Miss (Cool) 📉: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▼/▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Industrial Acceleration—Suggests the "Manufacturing Floor" is rising; bullish for corporate earnings but keeps the Fed hawkish as it signals a "No Landing" scenario.
📉 = Sector Stall—High equipment costs and logistical delays are biting; hints at a slowing real economy and provides the "bad news is good news" fuel for a rate-cut rally.

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: August 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: TBD

📋 Source: ISM
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
The ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid sub-index measures the change in prices paid by purchasing managers for materials and inputs. Above 50 = prices rising; below 50 = prices falling. Released alongside the Manufacturing PMI at 10:00 AM ET on the first business day of each month. A key Fed-watched input price inflation signal.

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: July 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: -0.1%

📋 Source: Census
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
Construction Spending measures the monthly change in the total value of construction work performed. It is split into Private (Residential and Nonresidential) and Public (State, Local, and Federal) sectors. Because it tracks actual "work done" rather than just contracts signed, it is a direct input for GDP. It serves as a vital indicator for the demand of raw materials (steel, cement) and labor. In the current 2026 environment, traders watch the "Manufacturing" and "Highway" segments closely to gauge the impact of long-term infrastructure and industrial investment.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 📈: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▲/▼
🔴 Miss (Cool) 📉: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▼/▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Capital Expansion—Strong investment in physical assets; positive for long-term productivity and growth.
📉 = Fixed Investment Slowdown—High borrowing costs or economic uncertainty are causing developers to pause projects; a signal of cooling macro momentum.

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: August 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: TBD

📋 Source: ISM
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
ISM Manufacturing Employment sub-index. Released same day as ISM Manufacturing PMI (1st business day, 10:00 AM ET).

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: August 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: TBD

📋 Source: ISM
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
ISM Manufacturing New Orders sub-index — leading indicator within the ISM report. Same release as ISM Manufacturing PMI.

📅 Release: 8:15 AM ET
📅 Period: August 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +44K

📋 Source: ADP
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
The ADP National Employment Report measures monthly change in private-sector employment (in thousands) based on ADP payroll data, covering approximately 26 million workers. Released at 8:15 AM ET on the Wednesday before the BLS Employment Situation (NFP Friday). ADP is watched as a leading indicator for NFP, though the correlation varies significantly month to month — ADP and BLS often diverge by 100K+. Despite its limitations as an NFP predictor, it still moves markets on release.

The ADP National Employment Report is a high-frequency measure of non-farm private sector employment based on actual payroll data from over 25 million employees. While it doesn't include government jobs (unlike the BLS report), it is the most significant leading indicator for Friday’s "Big NFP." In 2026, the market is looking for the "Goldilocks" zone—enough hiring to avoid a recession, but slow enough to keep the Fed from hiking rates further to combat energy-driven inflation.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 📈: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▼
🔴 Miss (Cool) 📉: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Labor Resilience—Private firms are still expanding despite high borrowing costs; keeps the "Higher for Longer" narrative alive and pressures NQ multiples.
📉 = Cooling Demand—Hiring is slowing as businesses brace for a slowdown; provides the "Bad News is Good News" fuel for a rate-cut rally in tech.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: July 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: -57.3B

📋 Source: BEA
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
The U.S. Trade Balance measures the difference between the value of exported and imported goods and services. Released by the BEA, it is a direct component of GDP calculation (Net Exports). A "widening" deficit (more imports than exports) acts as a drag on GDP, while a "narrowing" deficit or a surplus contributes to economic growth. Beyond growth, this data reflects global demand for U.S. products and the domestic appetite for foreign goods, serving as a primary indicator of currency demand and trade policy impact.

🟢 Beat (Narrowing Deficit) 📈: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▲
🔴 Miss (Widening Deficit) 📉: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▼
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Export Strength—Strong international demand for U.S. goods/services; positive for GDP and the USD.
📉 = Import Surge/Export Weakness—Suggests a drag on domestic growth; may indicate a weakening global economy or a high-consumption/low-production domestic state.

📅 Release: 2:00 PM ET
📅 Period: September 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: TBD

📋 Source: Fed
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
Federal Reserve Beige Book — qualitative report on economic conditions across all 12 districts. 8x/year, 2 weeks before each FOMC meeting, 2:00 PM ET.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: Week of August 29, 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +206K

📋 Source: DOL
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals filing for unemployment insurance for the first time. Released every Thursday, it is the most frequent "high-definition" look we get at the labor market's health. In the 2026 environment, where the NQ is hyper-sensitive to "Higher for Longer" interest rates, low claims are actually bearish for tech because they give the Fed more room to stay hawkish.

🟢 Beat (Hot/Low Claims) 📉: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▼
🔴 Miss (Cool/High Claims) 📈: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Labor Resilience—Fewer people are being laid off than expected; suggests a robust economy that can handle high rates, which delays Fed rate cuts.
📉 = Early Cracking—A jump in claims suggests that corporate layoffs are finally accelerating, potentially forcing the Fed to pivot sooner to avoid a recession.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: July 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: -73.3B

📋 Source: BEA
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
The U.S. Trade Balance measures the difference between the value of exported and imported goods and services. Released by the BEA, it is a direct component of GDP calculation (Net Exports). A "widening" deficit (more imports than exports) acts as a drag on GDP, while a "narrowing" deficit or a surplus contributes to economic growth. Beyond growth, this data reflects global demand for U.S. products and the domestic appetite for foreign goods, serving as a primary indicator of currency demand and trade policy impact.

🟢 Beat (Narrowing Deficit) 📈: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▲
🔴 Miss (Widening Deficit) 📉: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▼
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Export Strength—Strong international demand for U.S. goods/services; positive for GDP and the USD.
📉 = Import Surge/Export Weakness—Suggests a drag on domestic growth; may indicate a weakening global economy or a high-consumption/low-production domestic state.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: Week of August 29, 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +1799K

📋 Source: DOL
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
Number of people currently receiving unemployment benefits (1-week lagged from Initial Claims). Released every Thursday 8:30 AM ET with Initial Claims.

📅 Release: 9:45 AM ET
📅 Period: August 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: TBD

📋 Source: S&P Global
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
The S&P Global US Services PMI™ (Final) covers the services sector. Released at 9:45 AM ET on the third business day of the month alongside the Final Composite PMI. Complements but is secondary to the ISM Services PMI released 15 minutes later.

📅 Release: 9:45 AM ET
📅 Period: August 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +54.6%

📋 Source: S&P Global
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
The S&P Global US Services PMI™ (Final) covers the services sector. Released at 9:45 AM ET on the third business day of the month alongside the Final Composite PMI. Complements but is secondary to the ISM Services PMI released 15 minutes later.

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: August 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +54.0%

📋 Source: ISM
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
The ISM Services PMI® (Non-Manufacturing) measures activity across the services sector, which accounts for ~80% of the US economy. Above 50 = expansion; below 50 = contraction. Released at 10:00 AM ET on the third business day of each month. Outsized weight in Fed policy expectations given services dominance in GDP and employment.

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: August 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +54.0%

📋 Source: ISM
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
The ISM Services PMI® (Non-Manufacturing) measures activity across the services sector, which accounts for ~80% of the US economy. Above 50 = expansion; below 50 = contraction. Released at 10:00 AM ET on the third business day of each month. Outsized weight in Fed policy expectations given services dominance in GDP and employment.

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: August 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +54.1%

📋 Source: ISM
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
The ISM Services PMI® (Non-Manufacturing) measures activity across the services sector, which accounts for ~80% of the US economy. Above 50 = expansion; below 50 = contraction. Released at 10:00 AM ET on the third business day of each month. Outsized weight in Fed policy expectations given services dominance in GDP and employment.

The ISM Services PMI is a "Tier-1" economic report that measures activity in the non-manufacturing sector (finance, healthcare, retail, and tech). Unlike the S&P Global version, this is a much broader survey and is considered the primary gauge for US GDP health. With the March data showing a sharp drop in Employment (45.2) and a spike in Prices (70.7), the market is on edge for signs of "Stagflation"—where growth slows but costs continue to rip.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 📈: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▲/▼
🔴 Miss (Cool) 📉: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▼/▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Service Sector Strength—Confirms the US consumer is still spending despite higher oil prices; suggests corporate earnings will hold up but makes a Fed rate cut less likely.
📉 = Consumer Cracking—A miss suggests that high costs are finally forcing a slowdown in discretionary spending; fuels "Recession" fears but gives the NQ a "lower yields" boost.

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: August 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: TBD

📋 Source: ISM
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
ISM Services Prices Paid sub-index. Tracks price pressure in the services sector. Same release as ISM Services PMI (3rd business day, 10:00 AM ET).

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: August 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +37K

📋 Source: BLS
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) measures the change in the number of paid employees in the U.S. excluding farm workers, government employees, and non-profit workers. It is the gold standard for gauging economic health. Because the Fed has a "dual mandate" (stable prices and maximum employment), a strong jobs report can be "bad news" for equities if it means the Fed has to keep interest rates higher to prevent the economy from overheating.

If Unemployment Rate contradicts, favor Unemployment Rate's release.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD 🔺 | Yields 🔺 | Equities 🔻
🔴 Miss (Cool) 🧊: USD 🔻 | Yields 🔻 | Equities 🔺
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ➡️ | Yields ➡️ | Equities ↗️

Potential Fed Insight:
🔥 = Strong Labor—Fed stays hawkish to cool the "wage-price spiral."
🧊 = Weakening Labor—Pivot/Rate cuts are back on the menu.
➡️ = Stabilization—The economy is in a "Goldilocks" zone.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: August 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +6.4%

📋 Source: BLS
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total labor force that is jobless and actively seeking employment. While it is technically a lagging indicator, it carries massive psychological weight for the Fed's "Maximum Employment" mandate. In an inflationary environment, a rising Unemployment Rate is often "Good News" for Equities because it signals the economy is cooling enough for the Fed to consider a pivot. A falling rate suggests a "Tight Labor Market," which can fuel wage-price spirals and keep the Fed hawkish.

If NFP contradicts, favor Unemployment Rate's release.

🟢 Beat (Hot/Low) 🔥: USD 🔺 | Yields 🔺 | Equities 🔻
🔴 Miss (Cool/High) 🧊: USD 🔻 | Yields 🔻 | Equities 🔺
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ➡️ | Yields ➡️ | Equities ↗️

Potential Fed Insight:
🔥 = Tight Labor Market—Fed remains hawkish to prevent an overheating economy.
🧊 = Labor is Cooling—The Fed has "room" to pivot or cut rates.
➡️ = Stable Growth—The labor market is balanced; Fed maintains the current path.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: August 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +3.2%

📋 Source: BLS
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) measures the annual change in wages for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls. While the MoM number gives the "quick twitch" reaction, the YoY number is the Fed's ultimate North Star for tracking the Wage-Price Spiral. If this stays stubbornly high (above 4%), the Fed cannot confidently cut rates. Professional traders watch this during the NFP release to see if the "macro trend" of inflation is truly cooling or just plateauing.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD 🔺 | Yields 🔺 | Equities 🔻
🔴 Miss (Cool) 🧊: USD 🔻 | Yields 🔻 | Equities 🔺
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ➡️ | Yields ➡️ | Equities ➡️

Potential Fed Insight:
🔥 = Structural Wage Inflation—The labor market is too tight; the Fed must stay hawkish.
🧊 = Trend Cooling—Wage growth is normalizing toward the 3.0%–3.5% target.
➡️ = Stable—No change to the current "Higher for Longer" or "Soft Landing" narrative.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: August 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +0.1%

📋 Source: BLS
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
Average Hourly Earnings (AHE) measures the monthly change in the amount businesses pay their employees for work. It is the primary indicator of Wage Inflation. The market focuses heavily on the Month-over-Month (MoM) change to see how fast costs are rising in real-time. In a high-inflation environment, "Good news for workers" (higher pay) is often "Bad news for the Fed," as rising wages force the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer to cool the economy.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD 🔺 | Yields 🔺 | Equities 🔻
🔴 Miss (Cool) 🧊: USD 🔻 | Yields 🔻 | Equities 🔺
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ➡️ | Yields ➡️ | Equities ↗️

Potential Fed Insight:
🔥 = Wage-Price Spiral—Wages are rising too fast; Fed must stay hawkish.
🧊 = Labor Cooling—Wage pressure is easing; inflation may be taming.
➡️ = Steady State—Wages are growing at a pace consistent with the Fed's target.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: August 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: TBD

📋 Source: BLS
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
Percentage of civilian noninstitutional population actively employed or seeking work. Released with NFP on the first Friday of each month at 8:30 AM ET.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: August 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: TBD

📋 Source: BLS
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
Average weekly hours worked by private sector production and nonsupervisory employees. Released with NFP at 8:30 AM ET.

NYSE Closed: Labor Day
Closed all day for US Equities & Options Trading

🛠️ Labor Day
2026-09-07

WTI CRUDE OIL (CL) — ROLL DAY
October 2026 Delivery (CLV26)

Approximate volume crossover date. Front-month liquidity typically
declines ~10 business days before expiry. Most traders roll during
this window to avoid thinning markets.

Key Dates:
Typical Roll Window : ~10 biz days before LTD
Roll Day (Today) : Tuesday, September 08, 2026 <-- approx. crossover
Last Trading Day : Tuesday, September 22, 2026

Contract : CL — WTI Crude Oil (NYMEX)

Rolling From : October 2026 Delivery (CLV26)
Rolling To : November 2026 Delivery (CLX26)

Typical Roll Behavior:
~10 biz days out : early institutional rolls begin
~5 biz days out : majority of volume migrates to next contract
Final days : liquidity in front month drops sharply

⚠ Physical delivery obligation for holders who do not roll.

📅 Release: 3:00 PM ET
📅 Period: July 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +3.3B

📋 Source: Fed
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
Consumer Credit measures the monthly change in total outstanding consumer credit in the United States, reported as a seasonally adjusted monthly change in billions of dollars. Released monthly by the Federal Reserve Board as the G.19 Statistical Release, typically around the fifth business day of the month at 3:00 PM ET, approximately five weeks after the reference month ends. Consumer credit covers revolving credit (primarily credit cards) and non-revolving credit (auto, student, and personal loans). A surprise expansion signals consumer willingness to take on debt — often positive for spending but a late-cycle risk indicator if sustained at elevated levels. A sharp contraction signals de-leveraging or tightening bank standards, and can foreshadow slowing consumer expenditure.

VIX FUTURES (VX) — ROLL DAY
September 2026 (VXU26)

Approximate volume crossover date (~5 business days before LTD).
VX rolls are typically executed in the week leading up to expiry.

Key Dates:
Roll Day (Today) : Wednesday, September 09, 2026 <-- approx. crossover
Last Trading Day : Wednesday, September 16, 2026 (Wednesday)

Contract : VX — VIX Futures (CFE — CBOE Futures Exchange)

Rolling From : September 2026 (VXU26) (VXU26)
Rolling To : October 2026 (VXV26) (VXV26)

Settlement Note:
On LTD (Wednesday), final settlement is based on the SOQ of the
VIX index, calculated from the opening prices of SPX options.
Unlike equity index futures, VX settles on the same day as LTD.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: August 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +0.4%

📋 Source: BLS
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
Core PPI MoM measures the monthly change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output, excluding the volatile food and energy sectors. It is distinct from "Headline" PPI because it filters out that "noise" to reveal underlying inflation trends, making it a critical tool for the Fed to gauge future consumer price pressures and for traders to speculate on upcoming interest rate shifts.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD 🔺 | Yields 🔺 | Equities 🔻
🔴 Miss (Cool) 🧊: USD 🔻 | Yields 🔻 | Equities 🔺
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ➡️ | Yields ➡️ | Equities ↗️

Potential Fed Insight:
🔥 = Too hot to handle—Fed stays hawkish.
🧊 = Inflation chill—Pivot is back on the menu.
➡️ = Nothing to see here—relief rally potential.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: August 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +0.0%

📋 Source: BLS
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
PPI MoM measures the change in selling prices for all goods and services, including food and energy. While it's the "early warning" for consumer prices, it is highly sensitive to swings in gas and oil prices, making it more volatile than the Core reading. It is a key indicator for corporate profit margins and commodity-driven inflation.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD 🔺 | Yields 🔺 | Equities 🔻
🔴 Miss (Cool) 🧊: USD 🔻 | Yields 🔻 | Equities 🔺
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ➡️ | Yields ➡️ | Equities ↗️

Potential Fed Insight:
🔥 = Commodity Pressure—Watch for energy costs trickling into the economy.
🧊 = Input Relief—Wholesale costs are easing; great for corporate margins.
➡️ = Stable—No major supply chain or energy shocks this month.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: Week of September 5, 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +206K

📋 Source: DOL
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals filing for unemployment insurance for the first time. Released every Thursday, it is the most frequent "high-definition" look we get at the labor market's health. In the 2026 environment, where the NQ is hyper-sensitive to "Higher for Longer" interest rates, low claims are actually bearish for tech because they give the Fed more room to stay hawkish.

🟢 Beat (Hot/Low Claims) 📉: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▼
🔴 Miss (Cool/High Claims) 📈: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Labor Resilience—Fewer people are being laid off than expected; suggests a robust economy that can handle high rates, which delays Fed rate cuts.
📉 = Early Cracking—A jump in claims suggests that corporate layoffs are finally accelerating, potentially forcing the Fed to pivot sooner to avoid a recession.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: August 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +4.7%

📋 Source: BLS
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
Year-over-year change in the Producer Price Index. Released same day/time as PPI MoM.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: Week of September 5, 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +1799K

📋 Source: DOL
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
Number of people currently receiving unemployment benefits (1-week lagged from Initial Claims). Released every Thursday 8:30 AM ET with Initial Claims.

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: August 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: 4.06M

📋 Source: NAR
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
Existing Home Sales measures the annualized rate of previously owned homes sold in the US, reported as a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) in millions of units. Released monthly by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), typically the 3rd week of the following month at 10:00 AM ET. Existing sales represent ~90% of total home sales, making this the primary gauge of housing demand. The Fed monitors this closely as a rate-sensitive sector — mortgage rates above 7% have significantly suppressed sales since 2022.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: August 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +0.2%

📋 Source: BLS
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
Core CPI MoM strips out volatile food and energy sectors to reveal the underlying, long-term inflation trend. This is considered the "Truth" by the Federal Reserve. Since the Fed cannot control global oil or crop prices with interest rates, they use "Core" data (housing, services, etc.) to determine if monetary policy needs to be tighter or looser.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD 🔺 | Yields 🔺 | Equities 🔻
🔴 Miss (Cool) 🧊: USD 🔻 | Yields 🔻 | Equities 🔺
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ➡️ | Yields ➡️ | Equities ↗️

Potential Fed Insight:
🔥 = Sticky Inflation—Fed stays "Higher for Longer"; no cuts likely.
🧊 = Disinflation—Structural inflation is cooling; Pivot narrative is active.
➡️ = Consistency—The current policy path is likely working.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: August 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +3.4%

📋 Source: BLS
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
Year-over-year change in the Consumer Price Index. Released same day/time as CPI MoM (BLS, ~12th of month, 8:30 AM ET).

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: August 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +0.1%

📋 Source: BLS
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
CPI MoM measures the monthly change in prices paid by consumers for a broad basket of goods and services. Because it includes volatile categories like food and energy, it is often the "Shock Factor" that drives the first 60 seconds of price action. It serves as the primary "early warning" for consumer cost-of-living increases.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD 🔺 | Yields 🔺 | Equities 🔻
🔴 Miss (Cool) 🧊: USD 🔻 | Yields 🔻 | Equities 🔺
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ➡️ | Yields ➡️ | Equities ↗️

Potential Fed Insight:
🔥 = Consumer Stress—Inflation is hitting "kitchen table" expenses.
🧊 = Commodity Relief—Lower energy/food costs are helping the average consumer.
➡️ = Stable—No major monthly price shocks.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: August 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: -0.1%

📋 Source: BLS
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
Real Earnings measures the change in wages after adjusting for inflation (CPI). It tells the Fed if the consumer's "Buying Power" is actually increasing or if inflation is eating their paycheck. If wages go up 4% but inflation is 5%, Real Earnings is -1%. This is the ultimate "Social Stability" metric—if this stays negative, the consumer eventually breaks, which increases recession risk.

🟢 Beat (Higher Buying Power) 🚀: USD 🔻 | Yields 🔻 | Equities 🔺
🔴 Miss (Lower Buying Power) 📉: USD 🔺 | Yields 🔺 | Equities 🔻
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ➡️ | Yields ➡️ | Equities ➡️

Potential Fed Insight:
🚀 = Positive Real Wages—Consumers can keep spending without taking on new debt.
📉 = Cost of Living Crisis—Consumers are falling behind; recession risk is rising.
➡️ = Stable—Wages and inflation are moving in lockstep.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: August 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +0.2%

📋 Source: BLS
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
Year-over-year change in Core CPI (ex-food and energy). Released same day/time as CPI MoM.

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: September 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +3.3%

📋 Source: UoM
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
Preliminary UoM 5-Year Inflation Expectations. Released with Prelim UoM Sentiment (2nd Friday).

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: September 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +51.0

📋 Source: UoM
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading, released on the second Friday of the month at 10:00 AM ET. Based on ~500 respondents, this is the first look at consumer confidence for the month and typically generates the larger market reaction. A final reading follows ~two weeks later. Beats signal household resilience; misses raise concerns about softening demand ahead.

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: September 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +4.3%

📋 Source: UoM
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
The preliminary University of Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, released with the Prelim Consumer Sentiment on the second Friday of the month at 10:00 AM ET. Measures how much consumers expect prices to rise over the next 12 months. The Fed watches this closely as a proxy for inflation expectations becoming unanchored — a sustained rise above 4-5% would pressure the Fed to act more hawkishly.