EQUITY INDEX FUTURES — ROLL DAY
June 2026 (Q2)

Today is the peak roll day. Back-month volume typically overtakes
front-month volume today. Most institutional and systematic traders
execute their rolls on Roll Wednesday.

Key Dates:
Roll Week Start : Monday, June 15, 2026
Roll Day (Today) : Wednesday, June 17, 2026 <-- peak volume crossover
Last Trading Day : Thursday, June 18, 2026
Final Settlement : Friday, June 19, 2026 — SOQ (Special Opening Quotation)

Contracts:
ES — E-mini S&P 500 (CME)
NQ — E-mini Nasdaq-100 (CME)
YM — E-mini Dow (CBOT)
RTY — E-mini Russell 2000 (CME)

Rolling From : Jun 2026 (ESM26 / NQM26 / YMM26 / RTYM26)
Rolling To : Sep 2026 (ESU26 / NQU26 / YMU26 / RTYU26)

Micro contracts follow the same schedule:
From : MESM26 / MNQM26 / MYMM26 / M2KM26
To : MESU26 / MNQU26 / MYMU26 / M2KU26

Typical Roll Behavior:
Mon–Tue : early + algorithmic rolling begins
Wednesday: peak day — most traders roll today
Thursday : last practical day to roll (regular session closes 4 PM ET)
Thu 4 PM - Fri 9:30 AM : Globex overnight session, near-zero expiry volume
Friday 9:30 AM ET : SOQ calculation — contract cash-settles at open

VIX OPTIONS EXPIRATION — June 2026

VIX options and VX futures share the same final settlement date:
the Wednesday 30 days before the 3rd Friday of the following month.

Settlement:
Settlement Day : Wednesday, June 17, 2026 (today)
Method : Special Opening Quotation (SOQ) of the VIX index,
calculated from the opening prices of SPX options
on the morning of expiration.
Note : VIX options are European-style (cash-settled, no early exercise).

What Settles Today:
VIX Options — CBOE VIX options, standard monthly contract
VX Futures — CBOE Futures Exchange (CFE) VIX futures

Key Dates:
VIX / VX Expiration (Today) : Wednesday, June 17, 2026
Next OPEX Friday : Friday, June 19, 2026

Typical Behavior:
The VIX SOQ can differ significantly from the prior day's VIX close
because it is calculated from the actual opening prices of SPX options,
not from the VIX index itself. Positions cannot be closed at expiry;
traders must roll or close before the Wednesday open.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: May 2026

🎯 Forecast: +0.5%
🕐 Previous: +0.5%

📋 Source: Census
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
Retail Sales measures the monthly change in the total value of sales at the retail level. It is the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for roughly 70% of the U.S. economy. This report includes everything from "Big Box" stores and online retailers to gas stations and restaurants. Because it is the first major look at consumer behavior for the month, it is a high-velocity market mover. A "Hot" print suggests the economy is over-performing, which can lead to higher inflation expectations and a hawkish Fed.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▼/▲
🔴 Miss (Cool) ❄️: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▲/▼
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
🔥 = Economic Overheating—Consumers are spending aggressively; suggests GDP will be revised higher, but also keeps the Fed's "higher for longer" narrative alive.
❄️ = Spending Freeze—A pullback in retail indicates that high interest rates are finally curbing consumer appetite; a classic "Cooling" signal.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: May 2026

🎯 Forecast: +0.5%
🕐 Previous: +0.7%

📋 Source: Census
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
Core Retail Sales measures the monthly change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles. Because auto sales are large, expensive, and often skewed by financing incentives, removing them reveals the underlying strength of the "American Consumer." Since consumer spending accounts for ~70% of U.S. GDP, this is the highest-conviction report for gauging economic momentum. A strong core print suggests a "Hot" economy that may keep inflation sticky and the Fed hawkish.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▼/▲
🔴 Miss (Cool) ❄️: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▲/▼
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
🔥 = Consumer Resilience—The "Wealth Effect" is in full swing; households are spending despite high interest rates.
❄️ = Consumer Fatigue—High costs or debt levels are finally causing a pullback; a primary signal for an economic slowdown.

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: April 2026

🎯 Forecast: +0.5%
🕐 Previous: +0.9%

📋 Source: Census
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
Business Inventories measure the change in the dollar value of unsold goods held by manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers. Because this report represents the "total" stockpile of the U.S. economy, it is a primary component used to finalize GDP calculations. In a healthy economy, rising inventories suggest businesses are preparing for higher sales. However, if inventories rise while sales are flat, it signals a "glut" that could lead to future production cuts and a slowing economy.

🔴 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▼
🟢 Miss (Cool) ❄️: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
🔥 = Stockpile Accumulation—Provides a mathematical boost to current GDP but risks a "Bullwhip Effect" where future orders are cancelled due to oversupply.
❄️ = Inventory Drawdown—Suggests strong underlying demand is clearing out shelves; acts as a short-term drag on GDP but a long-term signal for a new production cycle.

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: May 2026

🎯 Forecast: +1.3%
🕐 Previous: +1.4%

📋 Source: NAR
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
Pending Home Sales MoM measures the month-over-month percentage change in signed contracts for existing single-family homes, condos, and co-ops. Released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) approximately four to five weeks after month-end at 10:00 AM ET. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) leads closed Existing-Home Sales by one to two months, making it a forward-looking housing demand indicator. A beat signals improving buyer confidence and supply absorption; a miss suggests softening demand, often driven by higher mortgage rates or weak affordability.

📅 Release: 2:00 PM ET
📅 Period: June 2026

🎯 Forecast: +3.8%
🕐 Previous: +3.8%

📋 Source: Fed
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
The Federal Open Market Committee target range upper bound for the federal funds rate — the overnight lending rate between banks. The single most powerful price in global finance. A hike tightens financial conditions, strengthens USD, pressures equities and bonds; a cut eases conditions and fuels risk-on moves. Released at 2:00 PM ET on FOMC decision days, 8 times per year.

📅 Release: 2:00 PM ET
📅 Period: June 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +0.2%

📋 Source: Fed
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
The policy statement released by the Federal Open Market Committee simultaneously with the rate decision at 2:00 PM ET. Markets parse every word for shifts in language around inflation, employment, and the future rate path. Changes in key phrases (e.g., "patient," "data-dependent," "ongoing increases") move markets more than the rate decision itself.

📅 Release: 2:30 PM ET
📅 Period: June 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: TBD

📋 Source: Fed
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
The Fed Chair press conference at 2:30 PM ET following every FOMC meeting (held at all 8 scheduled meetings since Jan 2019). Q&A with reporters often clarifies the statement's nuances and can dramatically move markets — particularly if the Chair sounds more hawkish or dovish than the written statement implies.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: Week of June 13, 2026

🎯 Forecast: +225K
🕐 Previous: +229K

📋 Source: DOL
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals filing for unemployment insurance for the first time. Released every Thursday, it is the most frequent "high-definition" look we get at the labor market's health. In the 2026 environment, where the NQ is hyper-sensitive to "Higher for Longer" interest rates, low claims are actually bearish for tech because they give the Fed more room to stay hawkish.

🟢 Beat (Hot/Low Claims) 📉: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▼
🔴 Miss (Cool/High Claims) 📈: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Labor Resilience—Fewer people are being laid off than expected; suggests a robust economy that can handle high rates, which delays Fed rate cuts.
📉 = Early Cracking—A jump in claims suggests that corporate layoffs are finally accelerating, potentially forcing the Fed to pivot sooner to avoid a recession.

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: May 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: 4020000.00M

📋 Source: NAR
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
Existing Home Sales measures the annualized rate of previously owned homes sold in the US, reported as a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) in millions of units. Released monthly by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), typically the 3rd week of the following month at 10:00 AM ET. Existing sales represent ~90% of total home sales, making this the primary gauge of housing demand. The Fed monitors this closely as a rate-sensitive sector — mortgage rates above 7% have significantly suppressed sales since 2022.

QUAD WITCHING — June 2026 (Q2)

The 3rd Friday of March, June, September, and December marks the
simultaneous expiration of four major derivatives classes, causing
elevated trading volume, volatility, and hedging flows.

What Expires Today:
1. Equity Index Futures — ES, NQ, YM, RTY cash-settle at SOQ (9:30 AM ET open)
2. Equity Index Options — SPX, NDX, RUT, DJX standard monthly (AM-settled at SOQ)
3. Individual Stock Options — standard monthly contracts (PM-settled, 4:00 PM ET)
4. Single-Stock Futures — largely defunct, but historically the 4th 'witch'

Settlement Timing:
9:30 AM ET : SOQ calculated for AM-settled index options + equity futures
(ES/NQ/YM/RTY settle here; SPX/NDX/RUT/DJX standard monthly settle here)
4:00 PM ET : PM-settled equity options and SPX weekly options expire

Key Dates This Cycle:
Witching Week Start : Monday, June 15, 2026
VIX Options Exp (SOQ) : Wednesday, June 17, 2026 (Wednesday)
Futures LTD (Thursday): Thursday, June 18, 2026
Quad Witching (Today) : Friday, June 19, 2026

Typical Market Behavior:
Monday/Tuesday : dealers begin adjusting delta hedges; vol often elevated
Wednesday : VIX/VX expiration; gamma exposure shifts sharply
Thursday : equity futures LTD; last day to roll ES/NQ/YM/RTY
Friday open : SOQ — often the most volatile instant of the cycle
Friday intraday : large option pin risk; stocks can anchor to nearby strikes
Friday close : equity option expiry; major dealer gamma exposure resets

AM-Settled Index Options (stop trading Thursday 4:15 PM ET):
SPX standard monthly, NDX standard monthly, RUT standard monthly, DJX
These settle Friday morning at the SOQ — you CANNOT trade out at open.

PM-Settled Options (trade until Friday 4:00 PM ET):
All individual equity options, SPX weekly options (e.g. SPXW)

NYSE Closed: Juneteenth National Independence Day
Closed all day for US Equities & Options Trading

✊🏾 Juneteenth National Independence Day
2026-06-19

US Observance

📅 Release: 9:45 AM ET
📅 Period: June 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: TBD

📋 Source: S&P Global
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
The S&P Global US Services PMI™ Flash is a preliminary estimate for the services sector, released alongside the Flash Manufacturing PMI at 9:45 AM ET on the 3rd Thursday of each month. Covers the largest sector of the US economy (~80% of GDP). The Flash Composite PMI combines Mfg + Svcs to give the broadest same-day read on economic momentum.

📅 Release: 9:45 AM ET
📅 Period: June 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: TBD

📋 Source: S&P Global
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ Flash is a preliminary estimate based on ~85% of monthly survey responses. Released at 9:45 AM ET on the 3rd Thursday of each month — approximately 2 weeks ahead of the Final reading. Often the first major macro release of the month window; market-moving due to its early signal on production, orders, and hiring trends.

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: May 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +622K

📋 Source: Census
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
New Home Sales measures the number of newly constructed single-family homes sold during the month. Because a new home purchase often triggers a "chain reaction" of secondary spending—including appliances, furniture, landscaping, and electronics—this report is a high-quality gauge of future consumer discretionary spending. Since the data is recorded when the contract is signed, it is much more sensitive to current Mortgage Rates and buyer sentiment than the lagging "Existing Home Sales" report.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 📈: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▲/▼
🔴 Miss (Cool) 📉: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▼/▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Buyer Resilience—Consumers are willing to lock in at current rates; suggests a strong "Wealth Effect" and confidence in job security.
📉 = Affordability Crisis—High prices or rates are locking buyers out of the market; a signal of a cooling "Real Economy."

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: May 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +0.7%

📋 Source: BEA
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index measures the change in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers. Unlike the "Core" version, this "Headline" figure includes food and energy costs. While the Fed focuses on Core for long-term policy, Headline PCE is what consumers actually feel at the pump and grocery store, making it a key driver of inflation expectations and "real" consumer spending power.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▼
🔴 Miss (Cool) ❄️: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
🔥 = Broad-Based Inflation—Rising energy/food costs are keeping headline inflation high; reduces discretionary spending.
❄️ = Cost Relief—Declining commodity prices are providing relief to households; supports a "soft landing" narrative.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: May 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +0.2%

📋 Source: BEA
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) measures the change in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding volatile food and energy categories. As the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, it provides a more stable view of long-term price trends than CPI. A higher-than-expected reading indicates persistent inflationary pressure, typically leading to hawkish Fed expectations, while a lower reading supports a cooling narrative.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▼
🔴 Miss (Cool) ❄️: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Fed Insight:
🔥 = Inflation Persistence—Core prices remain elevated; supports a restrictive policy stance.
❄️ = Disinflation Progress—Prices are cooling toward the 2% target; supports a pivot or easing.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: First Quarter 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +5.7%

📋 Source: BEA
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
Corporate Profits represent the net income of U.S. corporations and are a primary driver of equity valuations and capital expenditure. Prepared by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), this data reflects the overall health of the private sector. Expanding profits typically lead to increased investment and hiring, while declining profits suggest margin compression or slowing consumer demand. Traders monitor this to gauge the long-term sustainability of stock market rallies and the health of the broader economy.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 📈: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▲
🔴 Miss (Cool) 📉: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▼
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Economic Expansion—Corporate health is robust; suggests businesses have pricing power and strong demand.
📉 = Margin Squeeze—Rising input costs or falling demand are hurting the bottom line; potential precursor to a slowdown.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: Week of June 20, 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +229K

📋 Source: DOL
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals filing for unemployment insurance for the first time. Released every Thursday, it is the most frequent "high-definition" look we get at the labor market's health. In the 2026 environment, where the NQ is hyper-sensitive to "Higher for Longer" interest rates, low claims are actually bearish for tech because they give the Fed more room to stay hawkish.

🟢 Beat (Hot/Low Claims) 📉: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▼
🔴 Miss (Cool/High Claims) 📈: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Labor Resilience—Fewer people are being laid off than expected; suggests a robust economy that can handle high rates, which delays Fed rate cuts.
📉 = Early Cracking—A jump in claims suggests that corporate layoffs are finally accelerating, potentially forcing the Fed to pivot sooner to avoid a recession.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: May 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +0.0%

📋 Source: BEA
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received by consumers from all sources, including wages, investment income, and government transfers. Released by the BEA, this is a critical leading indicator for consumer spending, which accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. GDP. High income growth suggests a strong labor market and future spending potential, though excessive growth can stoke inflation fears through increased demand.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 📈: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▲/▼
🔴 Miss (Cool) 📉: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▼/▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Purchasing Power—Consumers have more capital to drive economic growth; hawkish if it implies a tight labor market leading to wage inflation.
📉 = Consumer Fatigue—Stagnant or falling income suggests a cooling labor market and future weakness in retail sales.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: First Quarter 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +0.5%

📋 Source: BEA
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
The Third Estimate of GDP is the final official calculation by the BEA for a specific quarter. Released 90 days after the quarter ends, it incorporates the most complete data available, including the "Quarterly Services Survey" and finalized trade and inventory figures. While often viewed as "old news," the 3rd Estimate is critical for institutional "book-squaring." Any significant deviation from the 2nd Estimate suggests that the economic trend is either stronger or weaker than previously modeled, which can trigger late-cycle adjustments to Fed policy expectations.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 📈: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▲/▼
🔴 Miss (Cool) 📉: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▼/▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Finalized Strength—Confirms a higher growth floor; supports the "no-landing" or "soft-landing" narrative.
📉 = Finalized Weakness—Confirms that the quarter was softer than initially thought; can increase recessionary signaling.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: May 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +0.4%

📋 Source: BEA
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index measures the change in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers. Unlike the "Core" version, this "Headline" figure includes food and energy costs. While the Fed focuses on Core for long-term policy, Headline PCE is what consumers actually feel at the pump and grocery store, making it a key driver of inflation expectations and "real" consumer spending power.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▼
🔴 Miss (Cool) ❄️: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
🔥 = Broad-Based Inflation—Rising energy/food costs are keeping headline inflation high; reduces discretionary spending.
❄️ = Cost Relief—Declining commodity prices are providing relief to households; supports a "soft landing" narrative.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: May 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +7.9%

📋 Source: Census
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
Durable Goods Orders measures the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with domestic manufacturers for "hard goods"—items with a life expectancy of at least three years. This includes everything from computers and industrial machinery to civilian aircraft and defense equipment. Because these items represent a significant capital investment, this report is a major indicator of future industrial production and business confidence. The Headline number is notoriously volatile due to large "lumpy" orders for commercial aircraft (Boeing) and defense contracts.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▲/▼
🔴 Miss (Cool) ❄️: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▼/▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
🔥 = Industrial Surge—Massive new orders suggest manufacturers will be ramping up production and hiring in the coming months.
❄️ = Manufacturing Slump—A sharp drop in orders indicates businesses and consumers are delaying major capital expenditures.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: First Quarter 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +0.5%

📋 Source: BEA
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
The Third Estimate of GDP is the final official calculation by the BEA for a specific quarter. Released 90 days after the quarter ends, it incorporates the most complete data available, including the "Quarterly Services Survey" and finalized trade and inventory figures. While often viewed as "old news," the 3rd Estimate is critical for institutional "book-squaring." Any significant deviation from the 2nd Estimate suggests that the economic trend is either stronger or weaker than previously modeled, which can trigger late-cycle adjustments to Fed policy expectations.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 📈: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▲/▼
🔴 Miss (Cool) 📉: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▼/▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Finalized Strength—Confirms a higher growth floor; supports the "no-landing" or "soft-landing" narrative.
📉 = Finalized Weakness—Confirms that the quarter was softer than initially thought; can increase recessionary signaling.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: May 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +1.1%

📋 Source: Census
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
Core Durable Goods Orders measure the monthly change in new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for "hard goods"—items intended to last at least three years (machinery, computers, appliances)—specifically excluding transportation equipment. This removal of the volatile aircraft and auto sectors provides a cleaner signal of business investment and consumer demand. It is a vital leading indicator: rising orders today mean increased factory production and hiring tomorrow.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▲/▼
🔴 Miss (Cool) ❄️: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▼/▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
🔥 = Industrial Expansion—Businesses are investing in equipment; suggests strong corporate confidence and future productivity gains.
❄️ = Capex Slowdown—Companies are pausing big-ticket purchases; a primary signal that the economy is cooling or bracing for a downturn.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: May 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +1.4%

📋 Source: Census
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
Advance Wholesale Inventories measures the monthly change in the value of goods held in stock by wholesalers (the "middlemen"). Released by the Census Bureau, this data is a direct input for GDP calculations. Because wholesalers sit between production and consumption, this report is an excellent indicator of the "supply chain health." Rising inventories can mean wholesalers are preparing for a spike in retail orders, or that the pipeline is backing up because consumers have stopped buying.

🟢 Beat (Higher) 📈: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ↔️/▼
🔴 Miss (Lower) 📉: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ↔️/▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Pipeline Expansion—Wholesalers are building stock; mathematically positive for GDP but potentially bearish if it indicates a lack of retail demand.
📉 = Pipeline Lean—Wholesalers are moving goods quickly to retailers; suggests strong end-user demand but acts as a short-term drag on GDP.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: May 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +0.7%

📋 Source: Census
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
Advance Retail Inventories measures the monthly change in the value of inventory held by the retail sector. Released by the Census Bureau, this is a "double-edged sword" indicator. While increasing inventories contribute positively to GDPin the short term (it counts as production), "bloated" inventories can signal that consumer demand is slowing and retailers may soon be forced to slash prices (deflationary). Conversely, low inventories can signal strong sales but may also indicate supply chain bottlenecks.

🟢 Beat (Higher) 📈: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ↔️/▼
🔴 Miss (Lower) 📉: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ↔️/▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Inventory Building—Retailers are stocking up for expected demand (Bullish) OR goods are sitting on shelves because sales are slow (Bearish).
📉 = Inventory Depletion—Stronger-than-expected sales are clearing shelves (Bullish) OR retailers are pessimistic about future demand and aren't restocking (Bearish).

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: May 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: -88.7B

📋 Source: Census
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
The Advance U.S. International Trade in Goods report provides the earliest look at the U.S. trade deficit for physical merchandise. It excludes services (like tourism or finance) but covers nearly 75% of total trade value. It is released alongside Advance Wholesale and Retail Inventories. Because it is a direct input for the first "Advance" GDP calculation, a surprise narrowing or widening of this balance often triggers an immediate revision in GDP models, moving the needle for the USD and Treasuries.

🟢 Beat (Narrowing Deficit) 📈: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▲
🔴 Miss (Widening Deficit) 📉: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▼
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Export Dominance—U.S. goods are in high demand or domestic demand for imports is cooling; a positive contributor to GDP.
📉 = Import Surge—Domestic consumption is outpacing production; acts as a "drag" on the upcoming GDP print.

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: June 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +4.7%

📋 Source: UoM
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
The University of Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Median Expected Price Change) surveys consumers on how much they expect prices to change over the next 12 months. Released with the Final UoM Consumer Sentiment report at 10:00 AM ET, typically the last Friday of the month. The Fed watches this closely as a proxy for inflation expectations becoming "unanchored" — a sustained rise above 4-5% would pressure the Fed to act more hawkishly. The 5-year expectation (long-run) is monitored even more closely.

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: June 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +53.3

📋 Source: UoM
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index measures U.S. consumer confidence in economic conditions, indexed to 1966=100. Released as a preliminary reading (second Friday of the month) and a final reading (last Friday of the month). Widely tracked as a leading indicator of consumer spending and economic momentum. A beat signals household resilience and may support risk-on moves; a miss raises concerns about demand softening ahead.

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: June 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +49.8

📋 Source: UoM
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index measures U.S. consumer confidence in economic conditions, indexed to 1966=100. Released as a preliminary reading (second Friday of the month) and a final reading (last Friday of the month). Widely tracked as a leading indicator of consumer spending and economic momentum. A beat signals household resilience and may support risk-on moves; a miss raises concerns about demand softening ahead.

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: May 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +7618K

📋 Source: BLS
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
JOLTS measures labor demand by counting the number of unfilled job openings on the last business day of the month. The Fed watches this closely to see the ratio of job openings to unemployed persons. Nuance: While the "Job Openings" number gets the headline, professional traders watch the "Quits Rate." High quits mean workers are confident they can find better-paying jobs, which drives "sticky" wage inflation. Low quits mean workers are "staying put," which signals a cooling economy.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD 🔺 | Yields 🔺 | Equities 🔻
🔴 Miss (Cool) 🧊: USD 🔻 | Yields 🔻 | Equities 🔺
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ➡️ | Yields ➡️ | Equities ➡️

Potential Fed Insight:
🔥 = Labor market is too tight—Excess demand for workers keeps the Fed hawkish.
🧊 = Labor demand is easing—Fewer openings mean the economy is cooling as intended.
➡️ = Balanced—Labor demand is stable; no immediate change to the Fed’s path.

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: June 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +93.1

📋 Source: Conf Board
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index measures U.S. household sentiment on current and expected economic conditions, indexed to 1985=100. Released on the last Tuesday of each month. It tracks consumers' assessments of current business conditions, the labor market, and their six-month outlook. As one of the most widely-followed leading indicators of consumer spending, a beat signals household resilience and supports risk assets; a miss raises fears of demand contraction ahead.

📅 Release: 8:15 AM ET
📅 Period: June 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +109K

📋 Source: ADP
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
The ADP National Employment Report measures monthly change in private-sector employment (in thousands) based on ADP payroll data, covering approximately 26 million workers. Released at 8:15 AM ET on the Wednesday before the BLS Employment Situation (NFP Friday). ADP is watched as a leading indicator for NFP, though the correlation varies significantly month to month — ADP and BLS often diverge by 100K+. Despite its limitations as an NFP predictor, it still moves markets on release.

The ADP National Employment Report is a high-frequency measure of non-farm private sector employment based on actual payroll data from over 25 million employees. While it doesn't include government jobs (unlike the BLS report), it is the most significant leading indicator for Friday’s "Big NFP." In 2026, the market is looking for the "Goldilocks" zone—enough hiring to avoid a recession, but slow enough to keep the Fed from hiking rates further to combat energy-driven inflation.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 📈: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▼
🔴 Miss (Cool) 📉: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Labor Resilience—Private firms are still expanding despite high borrowing costs; keeps the "Higher for Longer" narrative alive and pressures NQ multiples.
📉 = Cooling Demand—Hiring is slowing as businesses brace for a slowdown; provides the "Bad News is Good News" fuel for a rate-cut rally in tech.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: May 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: -57.3B

📋 Source: BEA
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
The U.S. Trade Balance measures the difference between the value of exported and imported goods and services. Released by the BEA, it is a direct component of GDP calculation (Net Exports). A "widening" deficit (more imports than exports) acts as a drag on GDP, while a "narrowing" deficit or a surplus contributes to economic growth. Beyond growth, this data reflects global demand for U.S. products and the domestic appetite for foreign goods, serving as a primary indicator of currency demand and trade policy impact.

🟢 Beat (Narrowing Deficit) 📈: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▲
🔴 Miss (Widening Deficit) 📉: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▼
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Export Strength—Strong international demand for U.S. goods/services; positive for GDP and the USD.
📉 = Import Surge/Export Weakness—Suggests a drag on domestic growth; may indicate a weakening global economy or a high-consumption/low-production domestic state.

📅 Release: 9:45 AM ET
📅 Period: June 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +55.1%

📋 Source: S&P Global
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ (Final) surveys ~800 purchasing managers across manufacturing. Released at 9:45 AM ET on the first business day of the month — 15 minutes before ISM. Uses a different methodology and sample from ISM; treated as a secondary confirmation but still market-moving at release.

The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI tracks sentiment in the US factory sector. Since this is the Final print, the market has already reacted to the Flash estimate released last week. We are looking for revisions—any deviation from the Flash will cause a "Revision Volatility" event.

What to Watch For:
🟢 BEAT: (Revision Up) — USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▼. Suggests a resilient "demand engine." Watch for the NQ to fade as "Higher for Longer" fears re-emerge.
🔴 MISS: (Revision Down) — USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▲/▼. Suggests a cooling sector. Initially bullish for equities ("Bad News is Good News"), but if the miss is deep (below 48.0), watch for "Hard Landing" fears to trigger a sell-off.
➡️ INLINE: (No Revision) — Neutral. Usually a "pop and drop" followed by a return to the previous trend. Non-event for NQ/ES.
⚠️ THE FLIP: Keep a close eye on the 50.0 level. If the Flash was 50.2 and the Final is 49.8, that "Expansion to Contraction" flip carries more psychological weight than the number itself.

📅 Release: 9:45 AM ET
📅 Period: June 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: TBD

📋 Source: S&P Global
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ (Final) surveys ~800 purchasing managers across manufacturing. Released at 9:45 AM ET on the first business day of the month — 15 minutes before ISM. Uses a different methodology and sample from ISM; treated as a secondary confirmation but still market-moving at release.

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: June 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +52.7%

📋 Source: ISM
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
The ISM Manufacturing PMI® is a composite index of five sub-indexes: New Orders (30%), Output (25%), Employment (20%), Supplier Deliveries (15%), and Inventories (10%). Above 50 = expansion; below 50 = contraction. Released at 10:00 AM ET on the first business day of each month. One of the most closely watched macro indicators — often moves equities, rates, and USD within seconds of release.

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: June 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +52.7%

📋 Source: ISM
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
The ISM Manufacturing PMI® is a composite index of five sub-indexes: New Orders (30%), Output (25%), Employment (20%), Supplier Deliveries (15%), and Inventories (10%). Above 50 = expansion; below 50 = contraction. Released at 10:00 AM ET on the first business day of each month. One of the most closely watched macro indicators — often moves equities, rates, and USD within seconds of release.

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: June 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: TBD

📋 Source: ISM
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
The ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid sub-index measures the change in prices paid by purchasing managers for materials and inputs. Above 50 = prices rising; below 50 = prices falling. Released alongside the Manufacturing PMI at 10:00 AM ET on the first business day of each month. A key Fed-watched input price inflation signal.

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: June 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +54.0%

📋 Source: ISM
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
The ISM Manufacturing PMI® is a composite index of five sub-indexes: New Orders (30%), Output (25%), Employment (20%), Supplier Deliveries (15%), and Inventories (10%). Above 50 = expansion; below 50 = contraction. Released at 10:00 AM ET on the first business day of each month. One of the most closely watched macro indicators — often moves equities, rates, and USD within seconds of release.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a "First-Tier" economic indicator that serves as the definitive health check for the US industrial sector. Compiled from a survey of over 400 purchasing managers, it is one of the most reliable leading indicators for GDP growth. Because this data is released on the first business day of the month and is never revised, it carries massive weight for institutional positioning in the NQ and ES.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 📈: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▲/▼
🔴 Miss (Cool) 📉: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▼/▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Industrial Acceleration—Suggests the "Manufacturing Floor" is rising; bullish for corporate earnings but keeps the Fed hawkish as it signals a "No Landing" scenario.
📉 = Sector Stall—High equipment costs and logistical delays are biting; hints at a slowing real economy and provides the "bad news is good news" fuel for a rate-cut rally.

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: May 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: -0.3%

📋 Source: Census
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
Construction Spending measures the monthly change in the total value of construction work performed. It is split into Private (Residential and Nonresidential) and Public (State, Local, and Federal) sectors. Because it tracks actual "work done" rather than just contracts signed, it is a direct input for GDP. It serves as a vital indicator for the demand of raw materials (steel, cement) and labor. In the current 2026 environment, traders watch the "Manufacturing" and "Highway" segments closely to gauge the impact of long-term infrastructure and industrial investment.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 📈: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▲/▼
🔴 Miss (Cool) 📉: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▼/▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Capital Expansion—Strong investment in physical assets; positive for long-term productivity and growth.
📉 = Fixed Investment Slowdown—High borrowing costs or economic uncertainty are causing developers to pause projects; a signal of cooling macro momentum.

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: June 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +82.1%

📋 Source: ISM
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
The ISM Manufacturing Prices Index (Prices Paid) measures the change in costs for raw materials and services used in production. As a leading indicator for the CPI, it is the market's first look at whether inflation is cooling or reigniting. In the current 2026 climate—defined by Middle East supply shocks and new trade tariffs—this sub-index often dictates the NQ’s reaction more than the headline growth number.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 📈: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▼
🔴 Miss (Cool) 📉: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Reigniting Inflation—Rising energy and logistical costs (Mideast war impact) are hitting manufacturers; forces the Fed to remain hawkish and delays any "Soft Landing" rate cuts.
📉 = Input Relief—Disinflation is taking hold despite geopolitical noise; suggests a "Goldilocks" environment where companies can maintain margins without raising prices on consumers.

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: May 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +0.4%

📋 Source: Census
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
Construction Spending measures the monthly change in the total value of construction work performed. It is split into Private (Residential and Nonresidential) and Public (State, Local, and Federal) sectors. Because it tracks actual "work done" rather than just contracts signed, it is a direct input for GDP. It serves as a vital indicator for the demand of raw materials (steel, cement) and labor. In the current 2026 environment, traders watch the "Manufacturing" and "Highway" segments closely to gauge the impact of long-term infrastructure and industrial investment.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 📈: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▲/▼
🔴 Miss (Cool) 📉: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▼/▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Capital Expansion—Strong investment in physical assets; positive for long-term productivity and growth.
📉 = Fixed Investment Slowdown—High borrowing costs or economic uncertainty are causing developers to pause projects; a signal of cooling macro momentum.

📅 Release: 2:00 PM ET
📅 Period: Meeting 20260610

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +0.1%

📋 Source: Fed
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
Full text of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes, released at 2:00 PM ET approximately three weeks after each FOMC decision. Provides detailed insight into committee member views on inflation, labor market, and policy outlook. Highly watched for hawk/dove signals and policy path clues.

NYSE Half-Day: Day Before Independence Day (Observed Year)
2026-07-02
Early Close: 1:00 PM ET
Eligible Options Close: 1:15 PM ET

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: June 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +3.4%

📋 Source: BLS
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) measures the annual change in wages for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls. While the MoM number gives the "quick twitch" reaction, the YoY number is the Fed's ultimate North Star for tracking the Wage-Price Spiral. If this stays stubbornly high (above 4%), the Fed cannot confidently cut rates. Professional traders watch this during the NFP release to see if the "macro trend" of inflation is truly cooling or just plateauing.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD 🔺 | Yields 🔺 | Equities 🔻
🔴 Miss (Cool) 🧊: USD 🔻 | Yields 🔻 | Equities 🔺
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ➡️ | Yields ➡️ | Equities ➡️

Potential Fed Insight:
🔥 = Structural Wage Inflation—The labor market is too tight; the Fed must stay hawkish.
🧊 = Trend Cooling—Wage growth is normalizing toward the 3.0%–3.5% target.
➡️ = Stable—No change to the current "Higher for Longer" or "Soft Landing" narrative.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: June 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +64K

📋 Source: BLS
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) measures the change in the number of paid employees in the U.S. excluding farm workers, government employees, and non-profit workers. It is the gold standard for gauging economic health. Because the Fed has a "dual mandate" (stable prices and maximum employment), a strong jobs report can be "bad news" for equities if it means the Fed has to keep interest rates higher to prevent the economy from overheating.

If Unemployment Rate contradicts, favor Unemployment Rate's release.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD 🔺 | Yields 🔺 | Equities 🔻
🔴 Miss (Cool) 🧊: USD 🔻 | Yields 🔻 | Equities 🔺
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ➡️ | Yields ➡️ | Equities ↗️

Potential Fed Insight:
🔥 = Strong Labor—Fed stays hawkish to cool the "wage-price spiral."
🧊 = Weakening Labor—Pivot/Rate cuts are back on the menu.
➡️ = Stabilization—The economy is in a "Goldilocks" zone.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: June 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +6.6%

📋 Source: BLS
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total labor force that is jobless and actively seeking employment. While it is technically a lagging indicator, it carries massive psychological weight for the Fed's "Maximum Employment" mandate. In an inflationary environment, a rising Unemployment Rate is often "Good News" for Equities because it signals the economy is cooling enough for the Fed to consider a pivot. A falling rate suggests a "Tight Labor Market," which can fuel wage-price spirals and keep the Fed hawkish.

If NFP contradicts, favor Unemployment Rate's release.

🟢 Beat (Hot/Low) 🔥: USD 🔺 | Yields 🔺 | Equities 🔻
🔴 Miss (Cool/High) 🧊: USD 🔻 | Yields 🔻 | Equities 🔺
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ➡️ | Yields ➡️ | Equities ↗️

Potential Fed Insight:
🔥 = Tight Labor Market—Fed remains hawkish to prevent an overheating economy.
🧊 = Labor is Cooling—The Fed has "room" to pivot or cut rates.
➡️ = Stable Growth—The labor market is balanced; Fed maintains the current path.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: June 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +0.3%

📋 Source: BLS
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
Average Hourly Earnings (AHE) measures the monthly change in the amount businesses pay their employees for work. It is the primary indicator of Wage Inflation. The market focuses heavily on the Month-over-Month (MoM) change to see how fast costs are rising in real-time. In a high-inflation environment, "Good news for workers" (higher pay) is often "Bad news for the Fed," as rising wages force the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer to cool the economy.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD 🔺 | Yields 🔺 | Equities 🔻
🔴 Miss (Cool) 🧊: USD 🔻 | Yields 🔻 | Equities 🔺
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ➡️ | Yields ➡️ | Equities ↗️

Potential Fed Insight:
🔥 = Wage-Price Spiral—Wages are rising too fast; Fed must stay hawkish.
🧊 = Labor Cooling—Wage pressure is easing; inflation may be taming.
➡️ = Steady State—Wages are growing at a pace consistent with the Fed's target.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: Week of June 27, 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +229K

📋 Source: DOL
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals filing for unemployment insurance for the first time. Released every Thursday, it is the most frequent "high-definition" look we get at the labor market's health. In the 2026 environment, where the NQ is hyper-sensitive to "Higher for Longer" interest rates, low claims are actually bearish for tech because they give the Fed more room to stay hawkish.

🟢 Beat (Hot/Low Claims) 📉: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▼
🔴 Miss (Cool/High Claims) 📈: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Labor Resilience—Fewer people are being laid off than expected; suggests a robust economy that can handle high rates, which delays Fed rate cuts.
📉 = Early Cracking—A jump in claims suggests that corporate layoffs are finally accelerating, potentially forcing the Fed to pivot sooner to avoid a recession.

NYSE Closed: Independence Day
Closed all day for US Equities & Options Trading

🇺🇸 Independence Day (Observed)
2026-07-03

📅 Release: 9:45 AM ET
📅 Period: June 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +50.7%

📋 Source: S&P Global
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
The S&P Global US Services PMI™ (Final) covers the services sector. Released at 9:45 AM ET on the third business day of the month alongside the Final Composite PMI. Complements but is secondary to the ISM Services PMI released 15 minutes later.

📅 Release: 9:45 AM ET
📅 Period: June 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: TBD

📋 Source: S&P Global
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
The S&P Global US Services PMI™ (Final) covers the services sector. Released at 9:45 AM ET on the third business day of the month alongside the Final Composite PMI. Complements but is secondary to the ISM Services PMI released 15 minutes later.

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: June 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +53.6%

📋 Source: ISM
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
The ISM Services PMI® (Non-Manufacturing) measures activity across the services sector, which accounts for ~80% of the US economy. Above 50 = expansion; below 50 = contraction. Released at 10:00 AM ET on the third business day of each month. Outsized weight in Fed policy expectations given services dominance in GDP and employment.

The ISM Services PMI is a "Tier-1" economic report that measures activity in the non-manufacturing sector (finance, healthcare, retail, and tech). Unlike the S&P Global version, this is a much broader survey and is considered the primary gauge for US GDP health. With the March data showing a sharp drop in Employment (45.2) and a spike in Prices (70.7), the market is on edge for signs of "Stagflation"—where growth slows but costs continue to rip.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 📈: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▲/▼
🔴 Miss (Cool) 📉: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▼/▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Service Sector Strength—Confirms the US consumer is still spending despite higher oil prices; suggests corporate earnings will hold up but makes a Fed rate cut less likely.
📉 = Consumer Cracking—A miss suggests that high costs are finally forcing a slowdown in discretionary spending; fuels "Recession" fears but gives the NQ a "lower yields" boost.

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: June 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +54.0%

📋 Source: ISM
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
The ISM Services PMI® (Non-Manufacturing) measures activity across the services sector, which accounts for ~80% of the US economy. Above 50 = expansion; below 50 = contraction. Released at 10:00 AM ET on the third business day of each month. Outsized weight in Fed policy expectations given services dominance in GDP and employment.

US Federal Holiday

WTI CRUDE OIL (CL) — ROLL DAY
August 2026 Delivery (CLQ26)

Approximate volume crossover date. Front-month liquidity typically
declines ~10 business days before expiry. Most traders roll during
this window to avoid thinning markets.

Key Dates:
Typical Roll Window : ~10 biz days before LTD
Roll Day (Today) : Tuesday, July 07, 2026 <-- approx. crossover
Last Trading Day : Tuesday, July 21, 2026

Contract : CL — WTI Crude Oil (NYMEX)

Rolling From : August 2026 Delivery (CLQ26)
Rolling To : September 2026 Delivery (CLU26)

Typical Roll Behavior:
~10 biz days out : early institutional rolls begin
~5 biz days out : majority of volume migrates to next contract
Final days : liquidity in front month drops sharply

⚠ Physical delivery obligation for holders who do not roll.