📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: June 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: -77.6B

📋 Source: BEA
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
The U.S. Trade Balance measures the difference between the value of exported and imported goods and services. Released by the BEA, it is a direct component of GDP calculation (Net Exports). A "widening" deficit (more imports than exports) acts as a drag on GDP, while a "narrowing" deficit or a surplus contributes to economic growth. Beyond growth, this data reflects global demand for U.S. products and the domestic appetite for foreign goods, serving as a primary indicator of currency demand and trade policy impact.

🟢 Beat (Narrowing Deficit) 📈: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▲
🔴 Miss (Widening Deficit) 📉: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▼
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Export Strength—Strong international demand for U.S. goods/services; positive for GDP and the USD.
📉 = Import Surge/Export Weakness—Suggests a drag on domestic growth; may indicate a weakening global economy or a high-consumption/low-production domestic state.

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: June 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +7618K

📋 Source: BLS
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
JOLTS measures labor demand by counting the number of unfilled job openings on the last business day of the month. The Fed watches this closely to see the ratio of job openings to unemployed persons. Nuance: While the "Job Openings" number gets the headline, professional traders watch the "Quits Rate." High quits mean workers are confident they can find better-paying jobs, which drives "sticky" wage inflation. Low quits mean workers are "staying put," which signals a cooling economy.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD 🔺 | Yields 🔺 | Equities 🔻
🔴 Miss (Cool) 🧊: USD 🔻 | Yields 🔻 | Equities 🔺
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ➡️ | Yields ➡️ | Equities ➡️

Potential Fed Insight:
🔥 = Labor market is too tight—Excess demand for workers keeps the Fed hawkish.
🧊 = Labor demand is easing—Fewer openings mean the economy is cooling as intended.
➡️ = Balanced—Labor demand is stable; no immediate change to the Fed’s path.

📅 Release: 8:15 AM ET
📅 Period: July 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +4K

📋 Source: ADP
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
The ADP National Employment Report measures monthly change in private-sector employment (in thousands) based on ADP payroll data, covering approximately 26 million workers. Released at 8:15 AM ET on the Wednesday before the BLS Employment Situation (NFP Friday). ADP is watched as a leading indicator for NFP, though the correlation varies significantly month to month — ADP and BLS often diverge by 100K+. Despite its limitations as an NFP predictor, it still moves markets on release.

The ADP National Employment Report is a high-frequency measure of non-farm private sector employment based on actual payroll data from over 25 million employees. While it doesn't include government jobs (unlike the BLS report), it is the most significant leading indicator for Friday’s "Big NFP." In 2026, the market is looking for the "Goldilocks" zone—enough hiring to avoid a recession, but slow enough to keep the Fed from hiking rates further to combat energy-driven inflation.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 📈: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▼
🔴 Miss (Cool) 📉: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Labor Resilience—Private firms are still expanding despite high borrowing costs; keeps the "Higher for Longer" narrative alive and pressures NQ multiples.
📉 = Cooling Demand—Hiring is slowing as businesses brace for a slowdown; provides the "Bad News is Good News" fuel for a rate-cut rally in tech.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: June 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: -57.3B

📋 Source: BEA
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
The U.S. Trade Balance measures the difference between the value of exported and imported goods and services. Released by the BEA, it is a direct component of GDP calculation (Net Exports). A "widening" deficit (more imports than exports) acts as a drag on GDP, while a "narrowing" deficit or a surplus contributes to economic growth. Beyond growth, this data reflects global demand for U.S. products and the domestic appetite for foreign goods, serving as a primary indicator of currency demand and trade policy impact.

🟢 Beat (Narrowing Deficit) 📈: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▲
🔴 Miss (Widening Deficit) 📉: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▼
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Export Strength—Strong international demand for U.S. goods/services; positive for GDP and the USD.
📉 = Import Surge/Export Weakness—Suggests a drag on domestic growth; may indicate a weakening global economy or a high-consumption/low-production domestic state.

📅 Release: 9:45 AM ET
📅 Period: July 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: TBD

📋 Source: S&P Global
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
The S&P Global US Services PMI™ (Final) covers the services sector. Released at 9:45 AM ET on the third business day of the month alongside the Final Composite PMI. Complements but is secondary to the ISM Services PMI released 15 minutes later.

📅 Release: 9:45 AM ET
📅 Period: July 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +51.2%

📋 Source: S&P Global
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
The S&P Global US Services PMI™ (Final) covers the services sector. Released at 9:45 AM ET on the third business day of the month alongside the Final Composite PMI. Complements but is secondary to the ISM Services PMI released 15 minutes later.

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: July 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +54.0%

📋 Source: ISM
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
The ISM Services PMI® (Non-Manufacturing) measures activity across the services sector, which accounts for ~80% of the US economy. Above 50 = expansion; below 50 = contraction. Released at 10:00 AM ET on the third business day of each month. Outsized weight in Fed policy expectations given services dominance in GDP and employment.

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: July 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +54.0%

📋 Source: ISM
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
The ISM Services PMI® (Non-Manufacturing) measures activity across the services sector, which accounts for ~80% of the US economy. Above 50 = expansion; below 50 = contraction. Released at 10:00 AM ET on the third business day of each month. Outsized weight in Fed policy expectations given services dominance in GDP and employment.

The ISM Services PMI is a "Tier-1" economic report that measures activity in the non-manufacturing sector (finance, healthcare, retail, and tech). Unlike the S&P Global version, this is a much broader survey and is considered the primary gauge for US GDP health. With the March data showing a sharp drop in Employment (45.2) and a spike in Prices (70.7), the market is on edge for signs of "Stagflation"—where growth slows but costs continue to rip.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 📈: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▲/▼
🔴 Miss (Cool) 📉: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▼/▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Service Sector Strength—Confirms the US consumer is still spending despite higher oil prices; suggests corporate earnings will hold up but makes a Fed rate cut less likely.
📉 = Consumer Cracking—A miss suggests that high costs are finally forcing a slowdown in discretionary spending; fuels "Recession" fears but gives the NQ a "lower yields" boost.

📅 Release: 4:05 PM ET
📅 Period: Speaks on Economic Outlook

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: TBD

📋 Source: FED
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
Lisa Cook — Federal Reserve Governor.
Tier 3 speaker. Market impact: Low.

🔴 Hawkish signals: Restrictive, Upside risks, Entrenched, Premature, Further action, Rule-based
🟢 Dovish signals: Neutral, Symmetry, Disinflation, Soft landing, Cooling, Patience
⚖️ Neutral: Wait and see, Lagged effects, Nimble, Data dependent

WTI CRUDE OIL (CL) — ROLL DAY
September 2026 Delivery (CLU26)

Approximate volume crossover date. Front-month liquidity typically
declines ~10 business days before expiry. Most traders roll during
this window to avoid thinning markets.

Key Dates:
Typical Roll Window : ~10 biz days before LTD
Roll Day (Today) : Thursday, August 06, 2026 <-- approx. crossover
Last Trading Day : Thursday, August 20, 2026

Contract : CL — WTI Crude Oil (NYMEX)

Rolling From : September 2026 Delivery (CLU26)
Rolling To : October 2026 Delivery (CLV26)

Typical Roll Behavior:
~10 biz days out : early institutional rolls begin
~5 biz days out : majority of volume migrates to next contract
Final days : liquidity in front month drops sharply

⚠ Physical delivery obligation for holders who do not roll.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: Second Quarter 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +1.8%

📋 Source: BLS
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
Nonfarm Productivity measures the efficiency of the U.S. economy by tracking output per hour worked. High productivity is the "secret sauce" for a healthy economy because it allows for wage growth without causing inflation. If workers are more efficient, companies can afford to pay them more without raising prices. It is a critical "Goldilocks" indicator for sustainable growth.

🟢 Beat (High) 🚀: USD 🔻 | Yields 🔻 | Equities 🔺
🔴 Miss (Low) 📉: USD 🔺 | Yields 🔺 | Equities 🔻
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ➡️ | Yields ➡️ | Equities ➡️

Potential Fed Insight:
🚀 = Efficient Growth—The Fed can breathe easy; the economy is growing without "overheating."
📉 = Inflationary Growth—Inefficiency is forcing prices up; the Fed stays hawkish.
➡️ = Stable—No major efficiency shocks to report.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: Week of August 1, 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +187K

📋 Source: DOL
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals filing for unemployment insurance for the first time. Released every Thursday, it is the most frequent "high-definition" look we get at the labor market's health. In the 2026 environment, where the NQ is hyper-sensitive to "Higher for Longer" interest rates, low claims are actually bearish for tech because they give the Fed more room to stay hawkish.

🟢 Beat (Hot/Low Claims) 📉: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▼
🔴 Miss (Cool/High Claims) 📈: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Labor Resilience—Fewer people are being laid off than expected; suggests a robust economy that can handle high rates, which delays Fed rate cuts.
📉 = Early Cracking—A jump in claims suggests that corporate layoffs are finally accelerating, potentially forcing the Fed to pivot sooner to avoid a recession.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: Second Quarter 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +4.4%

📋 Source: BLS
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
This quarterly report measures labor productivity (output per hour) and Unit Labor Costs (ULC). The "Holy Grail" for the Fed is High Productivity and Low Costs, which allows the economy to grow without fueling inflation. Nuance:This report is often heavily revised. Professional traders watch the "Unit Labor Costs" more than the productivity headline because high labor costs squeeze corporate margins, which is bearish for the ES.

🟢 Beat (Productivity UP) 🚀: USD 🔻 | Yields 🔻 | Equities 🔺
🔴 Miss (Productivity DOWN) 📉: USD 🔺 | Yields 🔺 | Equities 🔻
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ➡️ | Yields ➡️ | Equities ➡️

Potential Fed Insight:
🚀 = Efficient Growth—The Fed can breathe easy; the economy is growing without "overheating."
📉 = Inflationary Growth—Inefficiency is forcing prices up; the Fed stays hawkish.
➡️ = Status Quo—No major efficiency shocks to report.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: Second Quarter 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +0.8%

📋 Source: BLS
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
Nonfarm Productivity measures the efficiency of the U.S. economy by tracking output per hour worked. High productivity is the "secret sauce" for a healthy economy because it allows for wage growth without causing inflation. If workers are more efficient, companies can afford to pay them more without raising prices. It is a critical "Goldilocks" indicator for sustainable growth.

🟢 Beat (High) 🚀: USD 🔻 | Yields 🔻 | Equities 🔺
🔴 Miss (Low) 📉: USD 🔺 | Yields 🔺 | Equities 🔻
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ➡️ | Yields ➡️ | Equities ➡️

Potential Fed Insight:
🚀 = Efficient Growth—The Fed can breathe easy; the economy is growing without "overheating."
📉 = Inflationary Growth—Inefficiency is forcing prices up; the Fed stays hawkish.
➡️ = Stable—No major efficiency shocks to report.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: Second Quarter 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +2.3%

📋 Source: BLS
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
This quarterly report measures labor productivity (output per hour) and Unit Labor Costs (ULC). The "Holy Grail" for the Fed is High Productivity and Low Costs, which allows the economy to grow without fueling inflation. Nuance:This report is often heavily revised. Professional traders watch the "Unit Labor Costs" more than the productivity headline because high labor costs squeeze corporate margins, which is bearish for the ES.

🟢 Beat (Productivity UP) 🚀: USD 🔻 | Yields 🔻 | Equities 🔺
🔴 Miss (Productivity DOWN) 📉: USD 🔺 | Yields 🔺 | Equities 🔻
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ➡️ | Yields ➡️ | Equities ➡️

Potential Fed Insight:
🚀 = Efficient Growth—The Fed can breathe easy; the economy is growing without "overheating."
📉 = Inflationary Growth—Inefficiency is forcing prices up; the Fed stays hawkish.
➡️ = Status Quo—No major efficiency shocks to report.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: July 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +4.2%

📋 Source: BLS
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total labor force that is jobless and actively seeking employment. While it is technically a lagging indicator, it carries massive psychological weight for the Fed's "Maximum Employment" mandate. In an inflationary environment, a rising Unemployment Rate is often "Good News" for Equities because it signals the economy is cooling enough for the Fed to consider a pivot. A falling rate suggests a "Tight Labor Market," which can fuel wage-price spirals and keep the Fed hawkish.

If NFP contradicts, favor Unemployment Rate's release.

🟢 Beat (Hot/Low) 🔥: USD 🔺 | Yields 🔺 | Equities 🔻
🔴 Miss (Cool/High) 🧊: USD 🔻 | Yields 🔻 | Equities 🔺
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ➡️ | Yields ➡️ | Equities ↗️

Potential Fed Insight:
🔥 = Tight Labor Market—Fed remains hawkish to prevent an overheating economy.
🧊 = Labor is Cooling—The Fed has "room" to pivot or cut rates.
➡️ = Stable Growth—The labor market is balanced; Fed maintains the current path.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: July 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +0.3%

📋 Source: BLS
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
Average Hourly Earnings (AHE) measures the monthly change in the amount businesses pay their employees for work. It is the primary indicator of Wage Inflation. The market focuses heavily on the Month-over-Month (MoM) change to see how fast costs are rising in real-time. In a high-inflation environment, "Good news for workers" (higher pay) is often "Bad news for the Fed," as rising wages force the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer to cool the economy.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD 🔺 | Yields 🔺 | Equities 🔻
🔴 Miss (Cool) 🧊: USD 🔻 | Yields 🔻 | Equities 🔺
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ➡️ | Yields ➡️ | Equities ↗️

Potential Fed Insight:
🔥 = Wage-Price Spiral—Wages are rising too fast; Fed must stay hawkish.
🧊 = Labor Cooling—Wage pressure is easing; inflation may be taming.
➡️ = Steady State—Wages are growing at a pace consistent with the Fed's target.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: July 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +3.5%

📋 Source: BLS
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) measures the annual change in wages for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls. While the MoM number gives the "quick twitch" reaction, the YoY number is the Fed's ultimate North Star for tracking the Wage-Price Spiral. If this stays stubbornly high (above 4%), the Fed cannot confidently cut rates. Professional traders watch this during the NFP release to see if the "macro trend" of inflation is truly cooling or just plateauing.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD 🔺 | Yields 🔺 | Equities 🔻
🔴 Miss (Cool) 🧊: USD 🔻 | Yields 🔻 | Equities 🔺
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ➡️ | Yields ➡️ | Equities ➡️

Potential Fed Insight:
🔥 = Structural Wage Inflation—The labor market is too tight; the Fed must stay hawkish.
🧊 = Trend Cooling—Wage growth is normalizing toward the 3.0%–3.5% target.
➡️ = Stable—No change to the current "Higher for Longer" or "Soft Landing" narrative.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: July 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +49K

📋 Source: BLS
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) measures the change in the number of paid employees in the U.S. excluding farm workers, government employees, and non-profit workers. It is the gold standard for gauging economic health. Because the Fed has a "dual mandate" (stable prices and maximum employment), a strong jobs report can be "bad news" for equities if it means the Fed has to keep interest rates higher to prevent the economy from overheating.

If Unemployment Rate contradicts, favor Unemployment Rate's release.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD 🔺 | Yields 🔺 | Equities 🔻
🔴 Miss (Cool) 🧊: USD 🔻 | Yields 🔻 | Equities 🔺
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ➡️ | Yields ➡️ | Equities ↗️

Potential Fed Insight:
🔥 = Strong Labor—Fed stays hawkish to cool the "wage-price spiral."
🧊 = Weakening Labor—Pivot/Rate cuts are back on the menu.
➡️ = Stabilization—The economy is in a "Goldilocks" zone.

📅 Release: 3:00 PM ET
📅 Period: June 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: -0.2B

📋 Source: Fed
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
Consumer Credit measures the monthly change in total outstanding consumer credit in the United States, reported as a seasonally adjusted monthly change in billions of dollars. Released monthly by the Federal Reserve Board as the G.19 Statistical Release, typically around the fifth business day of the month at 3:00 PM ET, approximately five weeks after the reference month ends. Consumer credit covers revolving credit (primarily credit cards) and non-revolving credit (auto, student, and personal loans). A surprise expansion signals consumer willingness to take on debt — often positive for spending but a late-cycle risk indicator if sustained at elevated levels. A sharp contraction signals de-leveraging or tightening bank standards, and can foreshadow slowing consumer expenditure.

📅 Release: 12:45 PM ET
📅 Period: Speaks on Fireside Chat

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: TBD

📋 Source: FED
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
Michelle Bowman — Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision.
Tier 2 speaker. Market impact: Medium-High.

🔴 Hawkish signals: Restrictive, Upside risks, Entrenched, Premature, Further action, Rule-based
🟢 Dovish signals: Neutral, Symmetry, Disinflation, Soft landing, Cooling, Patience
⚖️ Neutral: Wait and see, Lagged effects, Nimble, Data dependent

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: July 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: 4.09M

📋 Source: NAR
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
Existing Home Sales measures the annualized rate of previously owned homes sold in the US, reported as a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) in millions of units. Released monthly by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), typically the 3rd week of the following month at 10:00 AM ET. Existing sales represent ~90% of total home sales, making this the primary gauge of housing demand. The Fed monitors this closely as a rate-sensitive sector — mortgage rates above 7% have significantly suppressed sales since 2022.

VIX FUTURES (VX) — ROLL DAY
August 2026 (VXQ26)

Approximate volume crossover date (~5 business days before LTD).
VX rolls are typically executed in the week leading up to expiry.

Key Dates:
Roll Day (Today) : Wednesday, August 12, 2026 <-- approx. crossover
Last Trading Day : Wednesday, August 19, 2026 (Wednesday)

Contract : VX — VIX Futures (CFE — CBOE Futures Exchange)

Rolling From : August 2026 (VXQ26) (VXQ26)
Rolling To : September 2026 (VXU26) (VXU26)

Settlement Note:
On LTD (Wednesday), final settlement is based on the SOQ of the
VIX index, calculated from the opening prices of SPX options.
Unlike equity index futures, VX settles on the same day as LTD.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: July 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +3.5%

📋 Source: BLS
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
Year-over-year change in the Consumer Price Index. Released same day/time as CPI MoM (BLS, ~12th of month, 8:30 AM ET).

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: July 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +0.0%

📋 Source: BLS
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
Core CPI MoM strips out volatile food and energy sectors to reveal the underlying, long-term inflation trend. This is considered the "Truth" by the Federal Reserve. Since the Fed cannot control global oil or crop prices with interest rates, they use "Core" data (housing, services, etc.) to determine if monetary policy needs to be tighter or looser.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD 🔺 | Yields 🔺 | Equities 🔻
🔴 Miss (Cool) 🧊: USD 🔻 | Yields 🔻 | Equities 🔺
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ➡️ | Yields ➡️ | Equities ↗️

Potential Fed Insight:
🔥 = Sticky Inflation—Fed stays "Higher for Longer"; no cuts likely.
🧊 = Disinflation—Structural inflation is cooling; Pivot narrative is active.
➡️ = Consistency—The current policy path is likely working.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: July 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: -0.4%

📋 Source: BLS
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
CPI MoM measures the monthly change in prices paid by consumers for a broad basket of goods and services. Because it includes volatile categories like food and energy, it is often the "Shock Factor" that drives the first 60 seconds of price action. It serves as the primary "early warning" for consumer cost-of-living increases.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD 🔺 | Yields 🔺 | Equities 🔻
🔴 Miss (Cool) 🧊: USD 🔻 | Yields 🔻 | Equities 🔺
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ➡️ | Yields ➡️ | Equities ↗️

Potential Fed Insight:
🔥 = Consumer Stress—Inflation is hitting "kitchen table" expenses.
🧊 = Commodity Relief—Lower energy/food costs are helping the average consumer.
➡️ = Stable—No major monthly price shocks.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: July 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +0.8%

📋 Source: BLS
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
Real Earnings measures the change in wages after adjusting for inflation (CPI). It tells the Fed if the consumer's "Buying Power" is actually increasing or if inflation is eating their paycheck. If wages go up 4% but inflation is 5%, Real Earnings is -1%. This is the ultimate "Social Stability" metric—if this stays negative, the consumer eventually breaks, which increases recession risk.

🟢 Beat (Higher Buying Power) 🚀: USD 🔻 | Yields 🔻 | Equities 🔺
🔴 Miss (Lower Buying Power) 📉: USD 🔺 | Yields 🔺 | Equities 🔻
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ➡️ | Yields ➡️ | Equities ➡️

Potential Fed Insight:
🚀 = Positive Real Wages—Consumers can keep spending without taking on new debt.
📉 = Cost of Living Crisis—Consumers are falling behind; recession risk is rising.
➡️ = Stable—Wages and inflation are moving in lockstep.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: July 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +2.6%

📋 Source: BLS
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
Year-over-year change in Core CPI (ex-food and energy). Released same day/time as CPI MoM.

COMEX METALS (GC) — ROLL DAY

Approximate volume crossover date. Front-month liquidity typically
declines ~10 business days before expiry. Most metals traders roll
2+ weeks before LTD to avoid delivery risk.

Key Dates:
Roll Day (Today) : Thursday, August 13, 2026 To:
GC August 2026 Delivery (GCQ26) -> October 2026 Delivery (GCV26)

Typical Roll Behavior:
~10 biz days out : crossover — back-month volume grows
Final week : liquidity in front month drops sharply

⚠ Physical delivery obligation for holders who do not roll.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: July 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +0.1%

📋 Source: BLS
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
Core PPI MoM measures the monthly change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output, excluding the volatile food and energy sectors. It is distinct from "Headline" PPI because it filters out that "noise" to reveal underlying inflation trends, making it a critical tool for the Fed to gauge future consumer price pressures and for traders to speculate on upcoming interest rate shifts.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD 🔺 | Yields 🔺 | Equities 🔻
🔴 Miss (Cool) 🧊: USD 🔻 | Yields 🔻 | Equities 🔺
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ➡️ | Yields ➡️ | Equities ↗️

Potential Fed Insight:
🔥 = Too hot to handle—Fed stays hawkish.
🧊 = Inflation chill—Pivot is back on the menu.
➡️ = Nothing to see here—relief rally potential.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: July 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: -0.3%

📋 Source: BLS
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
PPI MoM measures the change in selling prices for all goods and services, including food and energy. While it's the "early warning" for consumer prices, it is highly sensitive to swings in gas and oil prices, making it more volatile than the Core reading. It is a key indicator for corporate profit margins and commodity-driven inflation.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD 🔺 | Yields 🔺 | Equities 🔻
🔴 Miss (Cool) 🧊: USD 🔻 | Yields 🔻 | Equities 🔺
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ➡️ | Yields ➡️ | Equities ↗️

Potential Fed Insight:
🔥 = Commodity Pressure—Watch for energy costs trickling into the economy.
🧊 = Input Relief—Wholesale costs are easing; great for corporate margins.
➡️ = Stable—No major supply chain or energy shocks this month.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: Week of August 8, 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +197K

📋 Source: DOL
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals filing for unemployment insurance for the first time. Released every Thursday, it is the most frequent "high-definition" look we get at the labor market's health. In the 2026 environment, where the NQ is hyper-sensitive to "Higher for Longer" interest rates, low claims are actually bearish for tech because they give the Fed more room to stay hawkish.

🟢 Beat (Hot/Low Claims) 📉: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▼
🔴 Miss (Cool/High Claims) 📈: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Labor Resilience—Fewer people are being laid off than expected; suggests a robust economy that can handle high rates, which delays Fed rate cuts.
📉 = Early Cracking—A jump in claims suggests that corporate layoffs are finally accelerating, potentially forcing the Fed to pivot sooner to avoid a recession.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: July 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +5.5%

📋 Source: BLS
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
Year-over-year change in the Producer Price Index. Released same day/time as PPI MoM.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: July 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: -0.2%

📋 Source: Census
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
Core Retail Sales measures the monthly change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles. Because auto sales are large, expensive, and often skewed by financing incentives, removing them reveals the underlying strength of the "American Consumer." Since consumer spending accounts for ~70% of U.S. GDP, this is the highest-conviction report for gauging economic momentum. A strong core print suggests a "Hot" economy that may keep inflation sticky and the Fed hawkish.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▼/▲
🔴 Miss (Cool) ❄️: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▲/▼
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
🔥 = Consumer Resilience—The "Wealth Effect" is in full swing; households are spending despite high interest rates.
❄️ = Consumer Fatigue—High costs or debt levels are finally causing a pullback; a primary signal for an economic slowdown.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: July 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +0.2%

📋 Source: Census
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
Retail Sales measures the monthly change in the total value of sales at the retail level. It is the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for roughly 70% of the U.S. economy. This report includes everything from "Big Box" stores and online retailers to gas stations and restaurants. Because it is the first major look at consumer behavior for the month, it is a high-velocity market mover. A "Hot" print suggests the economy is over-performing, which can lead to higher inflation expectations and a hawkish Fed.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▼/▲
🔴 Miss (Cool) ❄️: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▲/▼
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
🔥 = Economic Overheating—Consumers are spending aggressively; suggests GDP will be revised higher, but also keeps the Fed's "higher for longer" narrative alive.
❄️ = Spending Freeze—A pullback in retail indicates that high interest rates are finally curbing consumer appetite; a classic "Cooling" signal.

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: August 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: TBD

📋 Source: UoM
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
Preliminary UoM 5-Year Inflation Expectations. Released with Prelim UoM Sentiment (2nd Friday).

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: August 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +4.6%

📋 Source: UoM
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
The preliminary University of Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, released with the Prelim Consumer Sentiment on the second Friday of the month at 10:00 AM ET. Measures how much consumers expect prices to rise over the next 12 months. The Fed watches this closely as a proxy for inflation expectations becoming unanchored — a sustained rise above 4-5% would pressure the Fed to act more hawkishly.

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: June 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +0.3%

📋 Source: Census
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
Business Inventories measure the change in the dollar value of unsold goods held by manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers. Because this report represents the "total" stockpile of the U.S. economy, it is a primary component used to finalize GDP calculations. In a healthy economy, rising inventories suggest businesses are preparing for higher sales. However, if inventories rise while sales are flat, it signals a "glut" that could lead to future production cuts and a slowing economy.

🔴 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▼
🟢 Miss (Cool) ❄️: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
🔥 = Stockpile Accumulation—Provides a mathematical boost to current GDP but risks a "Bullwhip Effect" where future orders are cancelled due to oversupply.
❄️ = Inventory Drawdown—Suggests strong underlying demand is clearing out shelves; acts as a short-term drag on GDP but a long-term signal for a new production cycle.

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: August 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +54.4

📋 Source: UoM
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading, released on the second Friday of the month at 10:00 AM ET. Based on ~500 respondents, this is the first look at consumer confidence for the month and typically generates the larger market reaction. A final reading follows ~two weeks later. Beats signal household resilience; misses raise concerns about softening demand ahead.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: August 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: TBD

📋 Source: NY Fed
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Survey. Around the 15th at 8:30 AM ET. Free from newyorkfed.org.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: July 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +0.8%

📋 Source: BLS
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
This measures the monthly change in prices for imported goods, excluding the volatile energy sector (petroleum and natural gas). Professional traders watch this to see if "structural" inflation is being imported from global factories. If this is rising, it puts upward pressure on the CPI and squeezes the profit margins of S&P 500 companies that rely on global supply chains.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 🔥: USD 🔺 | Yields 🔺 | Equities 🔻
🔴 Miss (Cool) 🧊: USD 🔻 | Yields 🔻 | Equities 🔺
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ➡️ | Yields ➡️ | Equities ➡️

Potential Fed Insight:
🔥 = Imported Inflation—Global prices are rising; the Fed may need to stay hawkish to keep the Dollar strong.
🧊 = Disinflationary Tailwinds—Global price pressures are easing, helping the Fed’s fight.
➡️ = Stable—Global supply chains are in a balanced price state.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: July 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: TBD

📋 Source: BLS
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
Monthly change in prices of goods imported into the U.S. BLS, ~10th of month, 8:30 AM ET. Tracks imported inflation pressure.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: July 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +1427K

📋 Source: Census
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
Housing Starts measures the number of new residential construction projects that began during the month. Released by the Census Bureau, this is a "coincident" indicator of economic strength. It tracks the actual deployment of capital and labor into the housing sector. Housing Starts are notoriously volatile because they are highly sensitive to weather conditions (e.g., a cold winter in Texas can cause a "Miss" regardless of demand). Despite the volatility, it is a key component of GDP and a major driver for the "Real Economy," affecting demand for everything from lumber to heavy machinery.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 📈: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▲/▼
🔴 Miss (Cool) 📉: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▼/▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Active Expansion—Builders are actively breaking ground; signals high confidence and a "tight" housing market that needs supply.
📉 = Construction Stall—High input costs or poor weather are halting projects; can lead to future supply shortages and higher home prices.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: July 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +1367K

📋 Source: Census
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
Building Permits measures the number of new residential building permits issued by the government. It is one of the most important leading indicators for the housing market because it signals future construction activity and, by extension, future demand for labor, raw materials (lumber, copper), and consumer durables. Because it is less affected by weather than "Housing Starts," it is often considered a more reliable gauge of the underlying trend in the housing sector.

🟢 Beat (Hot) 📈: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▲/▼
🔴 Miss (Cool) 📉: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▼/▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Growth Pipeline—A surge in permits suggests builders are confident in future demand; bullish for the economy but can be hawkish for rates.
📉 = Pipeline Freeze—A drop in permits suggests builders are pulling back due to high costs or low buyer traffic; a classic early-warning sign of a slowdown.

📅 Release: 9:15 AM ET
📅 Period: July 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +0.1%

📋 Source: Fed
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
Monthly change in total U.S. industrial output (manufacturing, mining, utilities). Fed G.17 around the 15th at 9:15 AM ET.

📅 Release: 9:15 AM ET
📅 Period: July 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +76.1%

📋 Source: Fed
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
Percentage of industrial production capacity in use. Released with Industrial Production.

📅 Release: 10:00 AM ET
📅 Period: July 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: -5.4%

📋 Source: NAR
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
Pending Home Sales MoM measures the month-over-month percentage change in signed contracts for existing single-family homes, condos, and co-ops. Released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) approximately four to five weeks after month-end at 10:00 AM ET. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) leads closed Existing-Home Sales by one to two months, making it a forward-looking housing demand indicator. A beat signals improving buyer confidence and supply absorption; a miss suggests softening demand, often driven by higher mortgage rates or weak affordability.

VIX OPTIONS EXPIRATION — August 2026

VIX options and VX futures share the same final settlement date:
the Wednesday 30 days before the 3rd Friday of the following month.

Settlement:
Settlement Day : Wednesday, August 19, 2026 (today)
Method : Special Opening Quotation (SOQ) of the VIX index,
calculated from the opening prices of SPX options
on the morning of expiration.
Note : VIX options are European-style (cash-settled, no early exercise).

What Settles Today:
VIX Options — CBOE VIX options, standard monthly contract
VX Futures — CBOE Futures Exchange (CFE) VIX futures

Key Dates:
VIX / VX Expiration (Today) : Wednesday, August 19, 2026
Next OPEX Friday : Friday, August 21, 2026

Typical Behavior:
The VIX SOQ can differ significantly from the prior day's VIX close
because it is calculated from the actual opening prices of SPX options,
not from the VIX index itself. Positions cannot be closed at expiry;
traders must roll or close before the Wednesday open.

📅 Release: 2:00 PM ET
📅 Period: Meeting 20260729

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +0.1%

📋 Source: Fed
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
Full text of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes, released at 2:00 PM ET approximately three weeks after each FOMC decision. Provides detailed insight into committee member views on inflation, labor market, and policy outlook. Highly watched for hawk/dove signals and policy path clues.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: August 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: TBD

📋 Source: Philly Fed
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey. Third Thursday of each month at 8:30 AM ET. Free data from philadelphiafed.org.

📅 Release: 8:30 AM ET
📅 Period: Week of August 15, 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +197K

📋 Source: DOL
📋 Tier: T2

📋 Details:
Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals filing for unemployment insurance for the first time. Released every Thursday, it is the most frequent "high-definition" look we get at the labor market's health. In the 2026 environment, where the NQ is hyper-sensitive to "Higher for Longer" interest rates, low claims are actually bearish for tech because they give the Fed more room to stay hawkish.

🟢 Beat (Hot/Low Claims) 📉: USD ▲ | Yields ▲ | Equities ▼
🔴 Miss (Cool/High Claims) 📈: USD ▼ | Yields ▼ | Equities ▲
➡️ In-Line (Neutral): USD ↔️ | Yields ↔️ | Equities ↔️

Potential Economic Insight:
📈 = Labor Resilience—Fewer people are being laid off than expected; suggests a robust economy that can handle high rates, which delays Fed rate cuts.
📉 = Early Cracking—A jump in claims suggests that corporate layoffs are finally accelerating, potentially forcing the Fed to pivot sooner to avoid a recession.

📅 Release: 2:00 PM ET
📅 Period: Meeting 20260730

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: TBD

📋 Source: Fed
📋 Tier: T1

📋 Details:
Full text of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes, released at 2:00 PM ET approximately three weeks after each FOMC decision. Provides detailed insight into committee member views on inflation, labor market, and policy outlook. Highly watched for hawk/dove signals and policy path clues.

MONTHLY OPTIONS EXPIRATION (OPEX) — August 2026

Standard monthly options expiration for equity and index options.
No equity index futures expire this month (non-witching cycle).

What Expires Today:
1. Individual Stock Options — standard monthly (PM-settled, 4:00 PM ET)
2. Index Options (AM-settled) — SPX, NDX, RUT standard monthly
These stop trading Thursday 4:15 PM ET and settle Friday at the SOQ.
Note: Equity index futures (ES/NQ/YM/RTY) do NOT expire this month.

Settlement Timing:
9:30 AM ET : SOQ for AM-settled index options (SPX/NDX/RUT standard monthly)
4:00 PM ET : PM-settled equity options and SPX weekly options expire

Key Dates:
VIX Options Exp (SOQ) : Wednesday, August 19, 2026 (Wednesday)
OPEX (Today) : Friday, August 21, 2026

Typical Market Behavior:
Thursday close : AM-settled index options stop trading
Friday open : SOQ for AM-settled options — often a volatile instant
Friday intraday: pin risk — stocks may gravitate toward high-OI strikes
Friday close : dealer gamma exposure resets as equity options expire

AM-Settled Index Options (stop trading Thursday 4:15 PM ET):
SPX standard monthly, NDX standard monthly, RUT standard monthly
These settle at the Friday SOQ — you CANNOT trade out at the open.

PM-Settled Options (trade until Friday 4:00 PM ET):
All individual equity options, SPX weekly options (SPXW)

📅 Release: 9:45 AM ET
📅 Period: August 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +55.7%

📋 Source: S&P Global
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ Flash is a preliminary estimate based on ~85% of monthly survey responses. Released at 9:45 AM ET on the 3rd Thursday of each month — approximately 2 weeks ahead of the Final reading. Often the first major macro release of the month window; market-moving due to its early signal on production, orders, and hiring trends.

📅 Release: 9:45 AM ET
📅 Period: August 2026

🎯 Forecast: TBD
🕐 Previous: +51.3%

📋 Source: S&P Global
📋 Tier: T3

📋 Details:
The S&P Global US Services PMI™ Flash is a preliminary estimate for the services sector, released alongside the Flash Manufacturing PMI at 9:45 AM ET on the 3rd Thursday of each month. Covers the largest sector of the US economy (~80% of GDP). The Flash Composite PMI combines Mfg + Svcs to give the broadest same-day read on economic momentum.