Calendar – Bull Barbie Trading

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Wednesday, April 1

8:15 – 8:16am
ADP Nonfarm Employment +62K (est. 40K)
💼 ADP Nonfarm Employment Change — Mar 2026
📅 Released: 2026-04-01 at 8:15 AM ET

📈 ACTUAL RESULTS
─────────────────────────────────────
Employment Change: +62K ← KEY NUMBER
Consensus Estimate: 40K
Previous Month: +63K
Surprise: +22K

📋 vs PREVIOUS MONTH
─────────────────────────────────────
📊 Steady: 62K vs 63K prior (-1K)

🏛️ SIGNAL
─────────────────────────────────────
🟡 IN-LINE

📝 RELEASE NOTES
─────────────────────────────────────
🟡 IN-LINE | (surprise: +22K) | ADP 62K vs 40K exp (above (strong)) | 📊 Steady: 62K vs 63K prior (-1K)

📋 NFP releases this Friday at 8:30 AM ET

https://adpemploymentreport.com/
8:30 – 8:31am
Core Retail Sales +0.5% (est. 0.3%)
🛒 Core Retail Sales MoM — Feb 2026
📅 Released: 2026-04-01 at 8:30 AM ET

📈 ACTUAL RESULTS
─────────────────────────────────────
Core Retail MoM (ex-Autos): +0.5% ← KEY NUMBER
Consensus Estimate: 0.3%
Previous Month: +0.0%
Surprise: +0.16pp

📊 vs PREVIOUS MONTH
─────────────────────────────────────
📈 Accelerating: +0.5% vs +0.0% prior

🏛️ SIGNAL
─────────────────────────────────────
🟡 IN-LINE

📝 NOTES
─────────────────────────────────────
🟡 IN-LINE | (surprise: +0.16pp) | Core Retail +0.5% vs 0.3% exp (above (strong)) | 📈 Accelerating: +0.5% vs +0.0% prior

🚗 Excludes Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers
https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html
8:30 – 8:31am
Retail Sales +0.7% (est. 0.3%)
🛍️ Retail Sales MoM — Feb 2026
📅 Released: 2026-04-01 at 8:30 AM ET

📈 ACTUAL RESULTS
─────────────────────────────────────
Retail Sales MoM: +0.7% ← KEY NUMBER
Consensus Estimate: 0.3%
Previous Month: +0.3%
Surprise: +0.40pp

📊 vs PREVIOUS MONTH
─────────────────────────────────────
📈 Accelerating: +0.7% vs +0.3% prior

🏛️ SIGNAL
─────────────────────────────────────
🟢 BEAT — Consumer Spending Stronger

📝 NOTES
─────────────────────────────────────
🟢 BEAT — Consumer Spending Stronger | (surprise: +0.4pp) | Retail +0.7% vs 0.3% exp (above (strong)) | 📈 Accelerating: +0.7% vs +0.3% prior

https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html
9:00am – 12:00pm
NY Open Live Voice Call
The Trading Ranch trades the open on live voice in The Trading Ranch Discord.
10:00 – 10:01am
ISM Manufacturing PMI — 52.7
✅ RELEASED — ISM Manufacturing PMI
Period: Mar 2026
Actual: 52.7 | Expansion | 🟢 BEAT
vs 50: +2.7 (Expansion)

> 50 = Expansion | < 50 = Contraction

RanchSquawk 🐓 Red Folder / Tier 1
10:00 – 10:01am
ISM Manufacturing Prices
═══════════════════════════════════════
🟠 ORANGE FOLDER / TIER 2 — ISM MANUFACTURING PRICES
═══════════════════════════════════════

🌡️ ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid — Mar 2026
📅 Release: 2026-04-01 at 10:00 AM ET
🏛️ Source: ISM Report on Business
⚡ Impact: MEDIUM-HIGH

⚡ POTENTIAL MARKET REACTIONS
─────────────────────────────────────
🔥 HOT → Beats expectations → USD ⬆, Yields ⬆ (inflation pressure — hawkish)
🧊 COOL → Misses expectations → USD ⬇, Yields ⬇ (disinflation — dovish)
➡️ IN-LINE → In-line → muted reaction; watch trend vs CPI and PPI for confirmation

📌 KEY NUMBERS TO WATCH
─────────────────────────────────────
• Prices Paid Index — HIGH
Prices Paid index. >50 = producers paying more. Early CPI/PPI signal.
• CPI / Inflation Linkage — HIGH
Sustained elevated Prices Paid leads CPI by 1–3 months.
• PMI + Prices Combined Read — HIGH
High PMI + high Prices Paid = stagflation risk if sustained.

🏛️ FED RELEVANCE
─────────────────────────────────────
The ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid index is an early warning of factory-level inflation pressure. When manufacturers pay more for raw materials and inputs (>50), those costs eventually filter through to consumer prices — a hawkish signal for the Fed. A sharp decline below 50 signals cost deflation in the goods sector, which can lead the Fed to ease or halt tightening.

─────────────────────────────────────
🐓 Auto-tracked by RanchSquawk AI
Results will be updated after release.
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/

Thursday, April 2

8:30 – 8:31am
Unemployment Claims (est. 212K)
═══════════════════════════════════════
🔴 RED FOLDER / TIER 1 — UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS
═══════════════════════════════════════

📊 Unemployment Claims — WE Mar 28, 2026
📅 Release: 2026-04-02 at 8:30 AM ET
🏛️ Source: Dept. of Labor (DOL)
⚡ Impact: HIGH

⚡ POTENTIAL MARKET REACTIONS
─────────────────────────────────────
🔥 HOT → Lower-than-expected claims → USD ⬆, Yields ⬆, Stocks mixed (hawkish)
🧊 COOL → Higher-than-expected claims → USD ⬇, Yields ⬇, Stocks mixed (dovish)
➡️ IN-LINE → In-line → muted reaction, traders focus on trend and continuing claims

📌 KEY NUMBERS TO WATCH
─────────────────────────────────────
1. Initial Claims — HIGHEST
The headline number. Below 200K = very tight. 200–250K = healthy. 300K+ = concern.
2. Continuing Claims — HIGH
Shows if displaced workers are finding jobs. Rising CC = labor market softening.
3. IC WoW Change — HIGH
Week-over-week direction. Sustained increases signal layoff acceleration.
4. 4-Week Avg IC — MEDIUM
Smooths weekly noise. Trend direction matters more than any single week.

🏛️ FED RELEVANCE
─────────────────────────────────────
Weekly claims are the most timely labor market indicator — the Fed watches them for real-time deterioration signals. A sustained rise above 250K historically precedes recessions by 2–4 months. Continuing claims reveal whether laid-off workers are finding new jobs quickly.

📡 CONSENSUS ESTIMATE
─────────────────────────────────────
Initial Claims: 212K
Source: InsightSentry / Forex Factory

📋 PREVIOUS (WE Mar 21, 2026)
─────────────────────────────────────
Initial Claims: 210K

─────────────────────────────────────
🐓 Auto-tracked by RanchSquawk AI
Results will be updated after release.
https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
9:00am – 12:00pm
NY Open Live Voice Call
The Trading Ranch trades the open on live voice in The Trading Ranch Discord.

Friday, April 3

All Day
NYSE Closed (CME Open)
Good Friday

Equities: Closed
(No regular 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET session)

CME Globex Equity Index Futures (ES, NQ, RTY):
Trades normally — CME Globex equity index futures are NOT closed on Good Friday.
Regular session: Sunday 6:00 PM – Friday 5:00 PM ET.
All Day
✝️ Good Friday
US Observance
8:30 – 8:31am
Unemployment Rate — Mar 2026
═══════════════════════════════════════
🔴 RED FOLDER — UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
═══════════════════════════════════════

📊 Unemployment Rate (U-3) — Mar 2026
📅 Release: 2026-04-03 at 8:30 AM ET
🏛️ Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
⚡ Impact: HIGH

⚡ POTENTIAL MARKET REACTIONS
─────────────────────────────────────
🔥 HOT → Lower-than-expected rate → USD ⬆, Yields ⬆, Stocks mixed (tight labor = hawkish)
🧊 COOL → Higher-than-expected rate → USD ⬇, Yields ⬇, Stocks mixed (weak labor = dovish)
➡️ IN-LINE → In-line → muted, traders look to payrolls + earnings for direction

📌 KEY NUMBERS TO WATCH
─────────────────────────────────────
1. U-3 Rate — HIGHEST
The headline U-3 rate is the #1 labor number. A 0.1pp surprise can move ES 10-20 points.
2. MoM Change — HIGH
MoM direction — consecutive rises trigger Sahm Rule recession fears.
3. U-6 Rate — MEDIUM
Broader underemployment incl. discouraged + involuntary part-time workers.
4. Participation — MEDIUM
Falling participation can mask true joblessness. Traders validate U-3 with this.

🏛️ FED RELEVANCE
─────────────────────────────────────
The unemployment rate is the Fed's primary labor market gauge (half of its dual mandate). A rising rate signals recession risk and accelerates rate cuts. A low/falling rate means tight labor, wage pressure, and patience on cuts. The Sahm Rule: a 0.5pp rise in the 3-month average from its 12-month low signals recession.

─────────────────────────────────────
🐓 Auto-tracked by RanchSquawk AI
Results will be updated after release.

Sunday, April 5

All Day
🐣 Easter Sunday
US Observance

Monday, April 6

9:00am – 12:00pm
NY Open Live Voice Call
The Trading Ranch trades the open on live voice in The Trading Ranch Discord.

Tuesday, April 7

All Day
CL Roll Day — May 2026
WTI CRUDE OIL (CL) — ROLL DAY
May 2026 Delivery (CLK26)

Approximate volume crossover date. Front-month liquidity typically
declines ~10 business days before expiry. Most traders roll during
this window to avoid thinning markets.

Key Dates:
Typical Roll Window : ~10 biz days before LTD
Roll Day (Today) : Tuesday, April 07, 2026 <-- approx. crossover
Last Trading Day : Tuesday, April 21, 2026

Contract : CL — WTI Crude Oil (NYMEX)

Rolling From : May 2026 Delivery (CLK26)
Rolling To : June 2026 Delivery (CLM26)

Typical Roll Behavior:
~10 biz days out : early institutional rolls begin
~5 biz days out : majority of volume migrates to next contract
Final days : liquidity in front month drops sharply

⚠ Physical delivery obligation for holders who do not roll.
9:00am – 12:00pm
NY Open Live Voice Call
The Trading Ranch trades the open on live voice in The Trading Ranch Discord.

Wednesday, April 8

All Day
VX Roll Day — Apr 2026
VIX FUTURES (VX) — ROLL DAY
April 2026 (VXJ26)

Approximate volume crossover date (~5 business days before LTD).
VX rolls are typically executed in the week leading up to expiry.

Key Dates:
Roll Day (Today) : Wednesday, April 08, 2026 <-- approx. crossover
Last Trading Day : Wednesday, April 15, 2026 (Wednesday)

Contract : VX — VIX Futures (CFE — CBOE Futures Exchange)

Rolling From : April 2026 (VXJ26) (VXJ26)
Rolling To : May 2026 (VXK26) (VXK26)

Settlement Note:
On LTD (Wednesday), final settlement is based on the SOQ of the
VIX index, calculated from the opening prices of SPX options.
Unlike equity index futures, VX settles on the same day as LTD.
9:00am – 12:00pm
NY Open Live Voice Call
The Trading Ranch trades the open on live voice in The Trading Ranch Discord.

Thursday, April 9

8:30 – 8:31am
Unemployment Claims
═══════════════════════════════════════
🔴 RED FOLDER / TIER 1 — UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS
═══════════════════════════════════════

📊 Unemployment Claims — WE Apr 4, 2026
📅 Release: 2026-04-09 at 8:30 AM ET
🏛️ Source: Dept. of Labor (DOL)
⚡ Impact: HIGH

⚡ POTENTIAL MARKET REACTIONS
─────────────────────────────────────
🔥 HOT → Lower-than-expected claims → USD ⬆, Yields ⬆, Stocks mixed (hawkish)
🧊 COOL → Higher-than-expected claims → USD ⬇, Yields ⬇, Stocks mixed (dovish)
➡️ IN-LINE → In-line → muted reaction, traders focus on trend and continuing claims

📌 KEY NUMBERS TO WATCH
─────────────────────────────────────
1. Initial Claims — HIGHEST
The headline number. Below 200K = very tight. 200–250K = healthy. 300K+ = concern.
2. Continuing Claims — HIGH
Shows if displaced workers are finding jobs. Rising CC = labor market softening.
3. IC WoW Change — HIGH
Week-over-week direction. Sustained increases signal layoff acceleration.
4. 4-Week Avg IC — MEDIUM
Smooths weekly noise. Trend direction matters more than any single week.

🏛️ FED RELEVANCE
─────────────────────────────────────
Weekly claims are the most timely labor market indicator — the Fed watches them for real-time deterioration signals. A sustained rise above 250K historically precedes recessions by 2–4 months. Continuing claims reveal whether laid-off workers are finding new jobs quickly.

─────────────────────────────────────
🐓 Auto-tracked by RanchSquawk AI
Results will be updated after release.
https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
9:00am – 12:00pm
NY Open Live Voice Call
The Trading Ranch trades the open on live voice in The Trading Ranch Discord.

Friday, April 10

9:00am – 12:00pm
NY Open Live Voice Call
The Trading Ranch trades the open on live voice in The Trading Ranch Discord.

Monday, April 13

9:00am – 12:00pm
NY Open Live Voice Call
The Trading Ranch trades the open on live voice in The Trading Ranch Discord.

Tuesday, April 14

All Day
GC Roll Day — Apr 2026
COMEX METALS (GC) — ROLL DAY

Approximate volume crossover date. Front-month liquidity typically
declines ~10 business days before expiry. Most metals traders roll
2+ weeks before LTD to avoid delivery risk.

Key Dates:
Roll Day (Today) : Tuesday, April 14, 2026 To:
GC April 2026 Delivery (GCJ26) -> June 2026 Delivery (GCM26)

Typical Roll Behavior:
~10 biz days out : crossover — back-month volume grows
Final week : liquidity in front month drops sharply

⚠ Physical delivery obligation for holders who do not roll.
9:00am – 12:00pm
NY Open Live Voice Call
The Trading Ranch trades the open on live voice in The Trading Ranch Discord.

Wednesday, April 15

All Day
VIX Options Expiration — Apr 2026
VIX OPTIONS EXPIRATION — April 2026

VIX options and VX futures share the same final settlement date:
the Wednesday 30 days before the 3rd Friday of the following month.

Settlement:
Settlement Day : Wednesday, April 15, 2026 (today)
Method : Special Opening Quotation (SOQ) of the VIX index,
calculated from the opening prices of SPX options
on the morning of expiration.
Note : VIX options are European-style (cash-settled, no early exercise).

What Settles Today:
VIX Options — CBOE VIX options, standard monthly contract
VX Futures — CBOE Futures Exchange (CFE) VIX futures

Key Dates:
VIX / VX Expiration (Today) : Wednesday, April 15, 2026
Next OPEX Friday : Friday, April 17, 2026

Typical Behavior:
The VIX SOQ can differ significantly from the prior day's VIX close
because it is calculated from the actual opening prices of SPX options,
not from the VIX index itself. Positions cannot be closed at expiry;
traders must roll or close before the Wednesday open.
All Day
Tax Day
US Observance
9:00am – 12:00pm
NY Open Live Voice Call
The Trading Ranch trades the open on live voice in The Trading Ranch Discord.

Thursday, April 16

8:30 – 8:31am
Unemployment Claims
═══════════════════════════════════════
🔴 RED FOLDER / TIER 1 — UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS
═══════════════════════════════════════

📊 Unemployment Claims — WE Apr 11, 2026
📅 Release: 2026-04-16 at 8:30 AM ET
🏛️ Source: Dept. of Labor (DOL)
⚡ Impact: HIGH

⚡ POTENTIAL MARKET REACTIONS
─────────────────────────────────────
🔥 HOT → Lower-than-expected claims → USD ⬆, Yields ⬆, Stocks mixed (hawkish)
🧊 COOL → Higher-than-expected claims → USD ⬇, Yields ⬇, Stocks mixed (dovish)
➡️ IN-LINE → In-line → muted reaction, traders focus on trend and continuing claims

📌 KEY NUMBERS TO WATCH
─────────────────────────────────────
1. Initial Claims — HIGHEST
The headline number. Below 200K = very tight. 200–250K = healthy. 300K+ = concern.
2. Continuing Claims — HIGH
Shows if displaced workers are finding jobs. Rising CC = labor market softening.
3. IC WoW Change — HIGH
Week-over-week direction. Sustained increases signal layoff acceleration.
4. 4-Week Avg IC — MEDIUM
Smooths weekly noise. Trend direction matters more than any single week.

🏛️ FED RELEVANCE
─────────────────────────────────────
Weekly claims are the most timely labor market indicator — the Fed watches them for real-time deterioration signals. A sustained rise above 250K historically precedes recessions by 2–4 months. Continuing claims reveal whether laid-off workers are finding new jobs quickly.

─────────────────────────────────────
🐓 Auto-tracked by RanchSquawk AI
Results will be updated after release.
https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
9:00am – 12:00pm
NY Open Live Voice Call
The Trading Ranch trades the open on live voice in The Trading Ranch Discord.

Friday, April 17

All Day
📅 Monthly OPEX — April 2026
MONTHLY OPTIONS EXPIRATION (OPEX) — April 2026

Standard monthly options expiration for equity and index options.
No equity index futures expire this month (non-witching cycle).

What Expires Today:
1. Individual Stock Options — standard monthly (PM-settled, 4:00 PM ET)
2. Index Options (AM-settled) — SPX, NDX, RUT standard monthly
These stop trading Thursday 4:15 PM ET and settle Friday at the SOQ.
Note: Equity index futures (ES/NQ/YM/RTY) do NOT expire this month.

Settlement Timing:
9:30 AM ET : SOQ for AM-settled index options (SPX/NDX/RUT standard monthly)
4:00 PM ET : PM-settled equity options and SPX weekly options expire

Key Dates:
VIX Options Exp (SOQ) : Wednesday, April 15, 2026 (Wednesday)
OPEX (Today) : Friday, April 17, 2026

Typical Market Behavior:
Thursday close : AM-settled index options stop trading
Friday open : SOQ for AM-settled options — often a volatile instant
Friday intraday: pin risk — stocks may gravitate toward high-OI strikes
Friday close : dealer gamma exposure resets as equity options expire

AM-Settled Index Options (stop trading Thursday 4:15 PM ET):
SPX standard monthly, NDX standard monthly, RUT standard monthly
These settle at the Friday SOQ — you CANNOT trade out at the open.

PM-Settled Options (trade until Friday 4:00 PM ET):
All individual equity options, SPX weekly options (SPXW)
9:00am – 12:00pm
NY Open Live Voice Call
The Trading Ranch trades the open on live voice in The Trading Ranch Discord.

Monday, April 20

9:00am – 12:00pm
NY Open Live Voice Call
The Trading Ranch trades the open on live voice in The Trading Ranch Discord.

Tuesday, April 21

8:30 – 8:31am
Core Retail Sales m/m
═══════════════════════════════════════
🔴 RED FOLDER / TIER 1 — CORE RETAIL SALES m/m
═══════════════════════════════════════

🛒 Core Retail Sales MoM — Mar 2026
📅 Release: 2026-04-21 at 8:30 AM ET
🏛️ Source: Census Bureau — Advance Monthly Retail Trade (ex-Autos)
⚡ Impact: HIGH

⚡ POTENTIAL MARKET REACTIONS
─────────────────────────────────────
🔥 HOT → Beats expectations → USD ⬆, Yields ⬆, Stocks mixed (hawkish core demand)
🧊 COOL → Misses expectations → USD ⬇, Yields ⬇, Stocks may rally (dovish readthrough)
➡️ IN-LINE → In-line → muted reaction; traders cross-reference headline retail and trend

📌 KEY NUMBERS TO WATCH
─────────────────────────────────────
1. Core Retail Sales MoM (ex-Autos) — HIGHEST
MoM % ex-autos: cleaner signal than headline. Key for GDP tracking.
2. vs Headline Retail Sales — HIGH
Divergence vs headline retail reveals auto-sector distortion.
3. Month-over-Month Trend — HIGH
Three-month trend direction outweighs any single monthly print.
4. GDP Tracking Impact — MEDIUM
Core retail feeds directly into PCE and GDP estimates.

🏛️ FED RELEVANCE
─────────────────────────────────────
Core Retail Sales (ex-Motor Vehicles) strips out the most volatile component of retail — auto sales — to reveal the underlying spending trend. The Fed and analysts prefer core retail as a cleaner GDP tracking input. A strong core print implies broad-based consumer demand (hawkish); weakness signals household belt-tightening that may prompt faster rate cuts.

─────────────────────────────────────
🐓 Auto-tracked by RanchSquawk AI
Results will be updated after release.
🚗 Excludes Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers
https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html
8:30 – 8:31am
Retail Sales m/m
═══════════════════════════════════════
🔴 RED FOLDER / TIER 1 — RETAIL SALES m/m
═══════════════════════════════════════

🛍️ Retail Sales MoM — Mar 2026
📅 Release: 2026-04-21 at 8:30 AM ET
🏛️ Source: Census Bureau — Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey
⚡ Impact: HIGH

⚡ POTENTIAL MARKET REACTIONS
─────────────────────────────────────
🔥 HOT → Beats expectations → USD ⬆, Yields ⬆, Stocks mixed (hawkish demand signal)
🧊 COOL → Misses expectations → USD ⬇, Yields ⬇, Stocks may rally (dovish hopes)
➡️ IN-LINE → In-line → muted reaction, markets focus on core components and trend

📌 KEY NUMBERS TO WATCH
─────────────────────────────────────
1. Retail Sales MoM % — HIGHEST
MoM % change: beats/misses move USD and yields immediately.
2. Core Retail (ex-Autos) MoM % — HIGH
Ex-autos strips out volatile vehicle sales for cleaner signal.
3. Month-over-Month Trend — HIGH
Sustained direction over 2–3 months matters more than any single print.
4. GDP Tracking Impact — MEDIUM
Strong retail → upward pressure on GDP tracking estimates.

🏛️ FED RELEVANCE
─────────────────────────────────────
Retail Sales is the most timely snapshot of consumer spending, which drives ~70% of US GDP. The Fed watches month-over-month changes closely: sustained strength implies demand-driven inflation pressure (hawkish), while weakness signals a consumer pullback that may prompt earlier or deeper rate cuts. Core retail (ex-autos) is the cleaner read on underlying spending trends.

─────────────────────────────────────
🐓 Auto-tracked by RanchSquawk AI
Results will be updated after release.
https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html
9:00am – 12:00pm
NY Open Live Voice Call
The Trading Ranch trades the open on live voice in The Trading Ranch Discord.

Trading Ranch Calendar

Aug 16 – Aug 22, 2026

Upcoming Events

Wednesday, April 1

Thursday, April 2

Friday, April 3

Sunday, April 5

Monday, April 6

Tuesday, April 7

Wednesday, April 8

Thursday, April 9

Friday, April 10

Monday, April 13

Tuesday, April 14

Wednesday, April 15

Thursday, April 16

Friday, April 17

Monday, April 20

Tuesday, April 21